持续宽松预期升温，贵金属维持强势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [8] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - With the growing expectation of continuous monetary easing and the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1000 yuan/gram. Silver has been hitting new historical highs, and the gold-silver ratio has been narrowing. The price of silver is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 14900 yuan/kg and 15900 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Waller stated that with a weakening job market and controlled inflation, the Fed still has 50 to 100 basis points of room for interest rate cuts, but no drastic action is needed based on the current economic outlook. Geopolitically, US President Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and labeled the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization." US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend, and relevant plans are still being formulated [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 972.50 yuan/gram and closed at 979.72 yuan/gram, a 0.85% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 982.48 yuan/gram, a 0.28% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 14,690.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,512.00 yuan/kg, a 5.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,627,068 lots, and the open interest was 388,994 lots. In the night session, it opened at 15,447 yuan/kg and closed at 15,594 yuan/kg, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.153%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.672%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions increased by 1,825 lots compared to the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 846 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 350,879 lots, a 9.75% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 11,227 lots, and the short positions increased by 13,690 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,872,967 lots, a 6.50% increase from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,051.69 tons compared to the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 43 tons to 16,018 tons [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.81 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,455.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 63.16, a 4.65% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 67.90, a 0.02% decrease from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,760 kg, a 28.88% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,320,846 kg, a 24.09% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,200 kg [7].