新能源及有色金属日报：下游采购疲弱不改铜价偏强格局-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautious and bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Short put [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the Fed's interest - rate meeting cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, and copper prices remained strong. The closing out of short hedging positions at the end of the year also pushed up copper prices. However, these factors will gradually fade, so the continuous sharp rise of copper prices may slow down. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 92,210 yuan/ton and closed at 92,820 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous trading - day's closing. The night - session of the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 92,830 yuan/ton and closed at 92,860 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the afternoon closing [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 200 - 100 yuan/ton to the next - month 2601 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan/ton, 25 yuan lower than the previous day. The spot price range was 92,000 - 92,290 yuan/ton. Sellers were active in shipping, but downstream procurement was weak, and spot premiums continued to decline. The end - of - year consumption is expected to remain weak, and spot premiums may continue to decline slightly [2] Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical - Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point rate - cut space. Trump ordered a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela and labeled the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization". US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend [3] Mining - On December 17, Fortescue Metals Group will acquire 64% of the outstanding common shares of Alta Copper for C$139 million (about $101 million), aiming for full control. Alta Copper's core asset is the Cañariaco copper project in Peru. The transaction is expected to complete in Q1 2026 [4] Smelting and Import - Qianbi Copper Smelting Co., Ltd. of China Non - Ferrous Metals Group exceeded the planned targets for main product output and total profit from January to November. As of November, copper product output reached 91.53% of the annual target [5] Consumption - In November 2025, China's copper industry prosperity index was 39.7, down 2.0 points from the previous month. The leading index was 73.4, down 2.1 points, and the coincident index was 74.3, down 3.6 points [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 166,925 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 907 tons to 44,877 tons. On December 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 164,500 tons, a change of 15,000 tons from the previous week [5] Copper Price and Basis Data | Category | Project | 2025 - 12 - 18 | 2025 - 12 - 17 | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 11 - 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) | SMM: 1 Copper | - 150 | - 125 | 30 | 105 | | | Premium Copper | - 125 | - 80 | 80 | 165 | | | Flat - water Copper | - 180 | - 150 | - 10 | 65 | | | Wet - process Copper | - 220 | - 200 | - 50 | 5 | | | Yangshan Premium | 50 | 48 | 48 | 47 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 10 | - 4 | 0 | 4 | | Inventory | LME | 166,925 | 166,600 | 164,975 | 136,050 | | | SHFE | 89,389 | | 88,905 | | | | COMEX | 412,441 | 410,789 | 401,925 | 345,906 | | Warehouse Receipts | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | 44,877 | 45,784 | 28,931 | 56,965 | | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipt Ratio | 38.66% | 39.43% | 38.09% | 6.96% | | Arbitrage | CU2604 - CU2601 (Three - month - near - month) | 150 | | 130 | 130 | 80 | | | CU2602 - CU2601 (Main - near - month) | 100 | | 80 | 70 | 120 | | | CU2602/AL2602 | 4.24 | 4.21 | 4.19 | 3.98 | | | CU2602/ZN2602 | 4.04 | 3.99 | 3.98 | 3.85 | | | Import Profit | - 1049 | - 675 | - 946 | - 924 | | | Shanghai - London Ratio (Main) | 7.90 | 7.91 | 7.95 | 8.03 | [24][25][26][27]