EG基差继续走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to weaken. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, with a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons (CCF data) or 75.5 tons (Longzhong data), showing an increase [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but high supply would resume in January. Overseas supply returned to neutral, and the increase in port inventory could be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline [2]. - For investment strategies, a neutral stance was recommended for unilateral trading. There was large production capacity release pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure was still large from January to February [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3758 yuan/ton, a change of +58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +1.57%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread - The report mentioned the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR, but no specific data was provided [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline. However, no specific data on downstream sales, production and operating rate was given in the provided text [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons, an increase of +2.5 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 75.5 tons, an increase of +3.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports of East China this week was 11.8 tons, and the arrival volume at secondary ports was 3 tons, which was slightly high overall, and the main ports were expected to have a slight inventory accumulation [1].