持续上涨驱动不足，板块延续震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish, focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply and demand in the 25/26 season both decrease, with a slight increase in ending inventory. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is abundant in the short term, but the downside of cotton price is limited [2]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - and medium - term international sugar price rebound space is restricted. The short - term supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant, and the downward space is also limited [5]. - Pulp: The supply is affected by overseas mill shutdowns, and the demand shows some improvement in Europe. The domestic paper market has over - capacity, but the marginal demand for pulp may increase in the future, which may support the pulp price to stabilize [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.14%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,144 yuan/ton, a change of + 14 yuan/ton. - Market news: On the 16th, the listed volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons, and the CCI sold about 73,000 tons through auction [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply and demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and the inventory pressure is large. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term downward space is limited. - Domestic: The domestic cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak, but the downside of cotton price is limited [2]. Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,139 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton (+ 0.12%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,245 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton. - Market news: As of December 15, 2025, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.697 million tons (27.69%) [4]. Market Analysis - International: The short - term support for the raw sugar futures price to stop falling and rebound comes from factors such as the accelerated harvest in Brazil, the difficult short - term export expansion in India, and the delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Thailand. However, the global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. - Domestic: The sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started production, with abundant short - term supply. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the downward space is limited [5]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the disturbance of the capital side to the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,506 yuan/ton, a change of + 38 yuan/ton (+ 0.69%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,105 yuan/ton, a change of + 15 yuan/ton. - Market news: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some price fluctuations. The supply of imported hardwood pulp was tight, and the market was stable [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There are continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance. - Demand: The European port wood pulp inventory decreased in October, showing some improvement in demand. The domestic paper market has over - capacity, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but the inventory has decreased recently, and the future demand for pulp may increase [7]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the upward space may be limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation. Pay attention to the disturbance of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts to the market [8]