临近冬至备货支撑猪价上行

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig market, pre - holiday stocking supports demand, and farmers are bullish in the short - term. Pig prices show regional differences, with North, East, and Southwest China relatively strong and Northeast China relatively weak. Short - term slaughter volume is expected to increase, supporting pig prices. Post - holiday large - scale farm sales rhythm and the sustainability of consumption support for demand should be monitored [1][2] - For the egg market, pre - holiday sentiment is warming up, and egg prices are stable and slightly increasing. Southern sales areas are following the price increase in production areas. During the winter solstice stocking period, supermarket and food factory demand is high, but overall supply remains high due to low old - hen culling, which may limit price increases [3][4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2603 contract was 11,435 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (+0.75%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 11.81 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.90 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.25 yuan/kg, unchanged. The national average wholesale price of pork was 17.43 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3,092 yuan/500 kg, down 22 yuan (-0.71%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.96 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.10 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan. On December 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.94 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, down 0.02 days (-1.53%) [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Pig Market - Pre - holiday stocking supports demand, and farmers are bullish in the short - term. Pig prices vary regionally. Short - term slaughter volume increase is expected to support prices, and post - holiday sales rhythm and consumption sustainability should be watched [2] Egg Market - Pre - holiday sentiment is positive, and egg prices are stable and rising. Southern sales areas follow the price increase in production areas. High demand during stocking and high supply may limit price increases [4] Group 5: Strategies - For both the pig and egg markets, the strategy is cautiously bearish [3][5]