石油沥青日报：原料担忧有所增加，现实基本面仍偏弱-20251218

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy is neutral, wait for clear bottom signals, focus on left - side buying opportunities on dips, and avoid chasing up [3] Group 2: Core View - On December 17, the afternoon closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract was 3,012 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 3.58%; the position was 235,465 lots, down 1,592 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 504,034 lots, up 131,674 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,820 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The sharp rise in asphalt futures yesterday was due to the rebound of crude oil prices after continuous declines, which eased the pressure on downstream energy - chemical commodities, and the gradual release of winter storage demand in the asphalt market; potential positive factors may come from raw material disturbances, as the situation in Venezuela has heated up, leading to a marginal tightening of Venezuelan oil shipments and a slight recovery in the discount of diluted asphalt. If the crisis persists, it may drive up the asphalt cost center. Considering the uncertainty of the Venezuelan situation and the current sufficient raw materials for domestic refineries, the rise is more sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the risk of expectation falsification. It is advisable to focus on low - buying and hedging strategies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The afternoon closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract on December 17 was 3,012 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 3.58%; the position was 235,465 lots, down 1,592 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 504,034 lots, up 131,674 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,820 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for clear bottom signals, focus on left - side buying opportunities on dips, and avoid chasing up [3] - Cross - varieties: None [3] - Cross - periods: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Charts - There are charts showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the spreads of near - month contracts, the trading volume and positions of asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt and the production of independent refineries and in different regions, the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the inventories of asphalt refineries and social inventories [4]