资金流入显现,稳定市场情绪
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-18 02:49
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Capital inflows are emerging, and the market sentiment is stabilizing. The inflow of funds further validates the market participation logic and strengthens the expectation of a long - term and slow - rising bull market. The Shanghai Composite Index generally maintains a box - shock pattern [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Section Market Analysis - Macro - economy: In the first 11 months of this year, the national fiscal revenue was 20.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, the same as that in the first 10 months. National tax revenue was 1.648 trillion yuan, a 1.8% increase, and the securities trading stamp tax revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, a 70.7% increase. Overseas, Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point rate - cut space, but no drastic action is needed based on the current economic outlook [1] - Stock market: A - share indexes rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. Most sector indexes rose, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and basic chemicals leading the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and coal sectors declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, Oracle's sharp decline dragged down AI stocks, and the three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 1.81% to 22693.32 points [1] - Futures market: In the futures market, the basis of the current - month stock index futures contracts will converge tomorrow. The trading volume of the four major stock index futures increased, and the position of IC increased [1] Strategy - Domestically, capital inflows are emerging, and the market is rising. The Shanghai Composite Index maintains a box - shock pattern. The capital inflow validates the market participation logic and strengthens the long - term and slow - rising bull market expectation [2] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [1][9][11] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Stock index performance: On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.40% to 13224.51 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.39% to 3175.91 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.83% to 4579.88 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.25% to 2991.68 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.95% to 7137.83 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.49% to 7288.74 points [13] - Other charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - Position and trading volume: The trading volume of IF was 189,590 (an increase of 39,510), the position was 289,623 (a decrease of 628); the trading volume of IH was 74,842 (an increase of 4,636), the position was 94,153 (a decrease of 1,896); the trading volume of IC was 184,831 (an increase of 21,520), the position was 271,976 (an increase of 2,748); the trading volume of IM was 290,120 (an increase of 35,895), the position was 392,878 (a decrease of 9,704) [15] - Basis: The basis data of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [41] - Inter - period spread: The inter - period spread data between different contracts (such as next - month minus current - month, next - season minus current - month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [45][46][47]