新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-18）-20251218

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass all show a "rebound" trend; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 shows an "oscillation" trend [2] - Financial Sector: CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury, and 5 - year Treasury show an "oscillation" trend; CSI 500, CSI 1000 show a "rebound" trend; 10 - year Treasury is in "consolidation"; gold and silver show an "oscillation - strong" trend [4] - Light Industry: Logs show "bottom - oscillation"; pulp shows "oscillation"; double - offset paper shows "weak - oscillation" [5] - Oilseeds and Oils: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil show a "rebound" trend; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 show an "oscillation - bearish" trend [6] - Agricultural Products: Pigs show a "strong" trend; rubber shows an "oscillation" trend [8] - Polyester: PX, PTA, and MEG show an "oscillation" trend; PR and PF are in a "wait - and - see" state [9] 2. Core Views - Black Industry: The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation". The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor for raw materials. For coal coke, short - term factors such as capacity review and safety inspection boost the market, but the change in export policy may have a negative impact. The overall black sector rebounds due to short - term fundamental improvement and policy support [2] - Financial Sector: The market shows short - term oscillation and consolidation, with a continued medium - term upward trend. The high - tech industry continues to grow. The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy affect its price [4] - Light Industry: The log market is in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom. The pulp market is affected by cost and demand factors, and the price may return to an oscillatory state after the digestion of positive factors. The double - offset paper market is under supply pressure and is expected to show weak oscillation [5] - Oilseeds and Oils: The oil market rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices, but the demand outlook is uncertain. The meal market is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [6] - Agricultural Products: The pig market may see a slight increase in prices in the future due to factors such as increased consumption and stable supply. The rubber market is affected by supply and demand factors, with prices expected to oscillate [8] - Polyester: The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. The prices of various products are expected to show oscillatory or wait - and - see trends [9] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Black Industry - Iron Ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - water production is decreasing, steel - mill maintenance expectations are increasing, and real - world demand is weak. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds due to restocking and macro - sentiment are opportunities to enter short positions [2] - Coal Coke: Capacity review, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies boost market sentiment, but the change in export policy may lead to a shift in market expectations from supply - side positives to demand - side negatives [2] - Rolled Steel and Glass: The government's emphasis on expanding domestic demand and short - term improvement in the steel fundamentals boost the black sector. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations. Glass rebounds due to factors such as price decline, macro - sentiment fermentation, and production - line cold - repair [2] 3.2 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The market is expected to maintain short - term oscillation and a medium - term upward trend [4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market shows a slight rebound. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4] - Precious Metals: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy support its price in the medium and long term [4][5] 3.3 Light Industry - Logs: Last week, the average daily port shipment of logs decreased, and the import volume from New Zealand and China decreased. This week, the expected arrival volume increased significantly. The spot - market price is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5] - Pulp: The spot - market price of pulp is differentiated, and the increase in external - market prices strengthens cost support. However, due to the low profitability of the paper industry and high inventory pressure, demand is weak, and the price may return to an oscillatory state [5] - Double - Offset Paper: The spot - market price is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The demand from publication orders provides support, but social - order demand is average, and the price is expected to show weak oscillation [5] 3.4 Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: The U.S. soybean crushing is at a high level, and the export of Malaysian palm oil is weak with high inventory. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the consumption recovery is weak. The oil price rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices [6] - Meals: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the market has a strong expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is expected to show an oscillatory - bearish trend [6] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Pigs: The average trading weight of pigs decreases slightly, and the demand for pork increases due to the drop in temperature. The slaughter - enterprise settlement price may increase, and the market supply is stable. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening decreases, while that of piglet fattening increases [8] - Rubber: The rubber production in domestic and foreign regions is affected by weather conditions. The demand side shows an increase in production - capacity utilization, but the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.6 Polyester - PX: The supply of PX is at a high level, and the downstream polyester load decreases. The PX price is affected by oil prices [9] - PTA: The cost of PTA fluctuates due to oil - price changes, and the short - term supply - demand situation improves, but the long - term situation may deteriorate [9] - MEG: There is a long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the near - month situation improves due to supply reduction. The price oscillates in the short term [9] - PR and PF: PR has strong raw - material support but weak downstream demand; PF has low inventory and is expected to have a warm price adjustment [9]