每日投资策略-20251218

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows signs of slight weakening in employment, with October non-farm payrolls significantly declining due to the end of government layoffs, although private employment continues to expand [2] - November non-farm payrolls rebounded better than market expectations, primarily in construction, healthcare, and education services, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years [2] - The overall job market is weakening but not severely deteriorating, with initial and continuing claims for unemployment benefits showing slight improvement [2] - The economic growth rate and unemployment rate are expected to stabilize by 2026, with inflation anticipated to decrease before rising again, and the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates once in June [2] Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,469, up 0.92% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.03% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index saw a rise of 1.68% [2] - In the US, the Dow Jones fell by 0.47%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.16%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 1.81% [2] - The DAX in Germany and CAC in France also experienced slight declines, while the FTSE 100 in the UK rose by 0.92% [2] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rebound, with materials, information technology, and financial sectors leading the gains, while utilities, telecommunications, and real estate lagged [4] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 7.909 billion, with Xiaomi, Meituan, and Alibaba being the top net purchases, while China Mobile and CNOOC saw significant net sales [4] - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 1.03% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index increased by 0.94% [3] Chinese Market Developments - The Chinese market regulatory authority warned that requiring merchants to offer "lowest prices online" could constitute monopoly behavior, encouraging platform companies to develop algorithm screening to prevent algorithmic monopolies [4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to launch full island closure, focusing on "one line open, one line controlled" to promote trade and investment liberalization, significantly reducing business operating costs [4] US Market Insights - The US stock market continued to decline, with technology, industrial, and communication services sectors leading the losses, while energy, consumer staples, and materials sectors saw gains [4] - The AI sector faced continued sell-offs, with Nvidia and Caterpillar experiencing significant declines [4] - The Federal Reserve's latest survey indicated that CFOs expect a 4.2% increase in US prices next year, significantly higher than the Fed's forecast of inflation returning close to 2% [4]