FICC日报：马士基欧基港报价2500美元/FEU，关注其他船司价格跟随情况-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the EC2602 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The far - month contracts face the risk of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, which may lead to a downward revision of their valuations. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to expect it to fluctuate, while the EC2602 contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is currently no arbitrage strategy [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Prices - As of December 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 61,674.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,873.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1699.80, 1124.10, 1283.70, 1448.10, 1045.20, and 1632.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On December 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2652 US dollars/FEU. On December 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 924.36 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 3 - week monthly average weekly capacity was 326,000 TEU, and in January, it was 322,700 TEU, and in February, it was 276,700 TEU. There were 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February (both blank sailings from the OA alliance). In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to resume sailing through the Red Sea. The Gaza cease - fire mediation plan is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation in 2026, which may increase effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the time for shipping companies to sign contracts and maintain prices will also be postponed [4][5].