国泰君安期货纸浆：宽幅震荡 20251218

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current core contradiction in the market is that although the continuous reduction of futures warehouse receipts and the firm external market quotations provide bottom support, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed substantially. The supply - side pressure still exists, with port inventories remaining at a high level despite a slight decline, and the demand side is weak, leading to poor sales of high - priced pulp. The market lacks a one - sided driver to break the current stalemate, with price increases constrained by weak demand and price decreases supported by cost and supply - side expectations. The price of softwood pulp may continue to be under pressure, while hardwood pulp is expected to remain relatively firm under the support of external market costs. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Market (05 Contract): The daily closing price of the pulp main contract increased by 38 yuan/ton to 5,506 yuan/ton, and the night - closing price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 5,538 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 206,895 hands to 319,068 hands, the open interest decreased by 189 hands to 207,655 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 3,566 tons to 187,098 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members increased by 5,369 hands to - 17,545 hands. [3] - Spread Data: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract decreased by 38 to 94, the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) decreased by 38 to - 856, and the monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 6 to - 38. [3] - Spot Market: For softwood pulp, the domestic prices of Northwood, Cariboo, Lion Brand, Moon, Silver Star, and Russian Needle are 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively, and the international price of Silver Star is 700 US dollars/ton. For hardwood pulp, the domestic prices of Goldfish, Star, and others range from 4,500 - 4,650 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star is 570 US dollars/ton. The domestic price of Chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic and international prices of Unbleached pulp (Venus) are 5,150 yuan/ton and 620 US dollars/ton respectively. [3] - Trend Intensity: The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. [3] 3.2 Industry News - The futures market was dominated by capital sentiment yesterday, with the SP2605 contract closing flat in the day session, and the spot market prices remained stable. The softwood pulp spot price ranges from 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton, and the hardwood pulp ranges from 4,300 - 4,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in port inventories and the procurement sentiment in the base paper market. [4][5]