2025年12月18日：期货市场交易指引-20251218

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][5]. - Black building materials: Coking coal is recommended for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is advised to short on rallies [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish after stabilizing at low levels; aluminum is suggested to strengthen observation; nickel is advised to observe or short on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly [1][10][12]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly [1][19][21]. - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; PTA is expected to rise in an oscillating manner; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][27][29]. - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; eggs' price increase is limited; corn is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal is for range trading, with near - month contracts treated strongly on dips and far - month contracts treated weakly; oils are advised to be cautious about short - chasing [1][31][36]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, such as policy, inventory, production, and consumption, and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][5][7]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance - Index futures: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. With the U.S. employment and retail sales data fluctuating, and the market's main line rotating quickly, the index futures may oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds: They are expected to oscillate. If the ultra - long - term yield does not reach a new high and the capital interest rate remains stable and low, the medium - and short - term interest rates may ease. Attention should be paid to the possible large fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds at the end of the year [5]. Black building materials - Coking coal: The market is in a game between strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term operation is mainly range trading on the right side [7]. - Rebar: It has low valuation and weak driving force. After the important meetings, the boost to the market is limited. With the decline in steel production and demand and the smooth inventory reduction, the steel price may oscillate weakly [7]. - Glass: The end - of - year inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the supply is increasing. The price is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: The price has reached a new high but faces a callback risk. The macro - loose expectation and long - term shortage of ore support the price center, but the short - term over - rise suppresses consumption. It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish after stabilizing at low levels [10]. - Aluminum: The price fluctuates greatly at a high level. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to strengthen observation or reduce long positions [12]. - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term, and the market is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to observe or short on rallies [16]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [16]. - Silver and gold: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion, the prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and conduct range trading for gold [17]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates and the resumption of lithium mines [19]. Energy and chemicals - PVC: The cost is low, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export growth is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. - Caustic soda: The inventory is high, and the profit of the main downstream is compressed. The supply is high in winter. It is recommended to observe temporarily [21]. - Styrene: The overseas market is weak, and the port inventory is decreasing. The factory's profit recovery limits the rebound space. It is expected to oscillate [21]. - Rubber: The overseas raw material price is high, but the domestic inventory is large. The tire production capacity utilization rate is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [22]. - Urea: The supply is sufficient, the agricultural demand is weak, and the industrial demand is supported. The inventory is relatively stable. It is recommended for range trading [23]. - Methanol: The supply recovers, the demand of methanol - to - olefins is high, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to repair upwards [25]. - Polyolefins: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the upward pressure is large. PE is expected to oscillate in a range, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - Soda ash: The supply is in excess, and the cost rises. The supply contraction eases the contradiction. It is recommended to observe temporarily [27]. Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is strong. They are expected to oscillate strongly [29]. - PTA: Affected by geopolitics and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the crude oil price rises, and the PTA supply - demand is in a de - stocking state. It is expected to rise in an oscillating manner [29][30]. - Apples and jujubes: The apple inventory sales are general, and the jujube acquisition is coming to an end. Both are expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, and the price oscillates narrowly. In the long term, the capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - month contracts [31][33]. - Eggs: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price lacks driving force. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for short - term, and pay attention to the elimination and external variables [33][34]. - Corn: In the short term, there is selling pressure, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. In the long term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the increase is limited [35]. - Soybean meal: The external market is weak, and the domestic near - month contracts are strong. It is recommended for range trading, with near - month contracts treated strongly on dips and far - month contracts treated weakly [36]. - Oils: The short - term market is affected by multiple negative factors and is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [36][43].