宏观金融数据日报-20251218

Group 1: Market Data - DRO01 closed at 1.27 with a -0.13bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a -0.65bp change, GC001 at 1.62 with a -7.00bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with a -2.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a 0.60bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.38 with no change, 5 - year treasury at 1.62 with a -1.26bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.84 with a -1.18bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.15 with a -3.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 468 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1898 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan [4] - This week, 6685 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1223 billion, 1173 billion, 1898 billion, 1186 billion, and 1205 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, on Monday, 4000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchases and 800 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits will mature [5] Group 2: Stock Index Data - The CSI 300 closed at 4580 with a 1.83% increase, IF current month at 4578 with a 1.8% increase, SSE 50 at 2992 with a 1.25% increase, IH current month at 2987 with a 1.2% increase, CSI 500 at 7138 with a 1.95% increase, IC current month at 7147 with a 1.9% increase, CSI 1000 at 7289 with a 1.49% increase, and IM current month at 7295 with a 1.5% increase [5] - IF trading volume was 189590 with a 26.3% increase, IF open interest was 289623 with a -0.2% change, IH trading volume was 74842 with a 6.6% increase, IH open interest was 94153 with a -2.0% change, IC trading volume was 184831 with a 13.2% increase, IC open interest was 271976 with a 1.0% increase, IM trading volume was 290120 with a 14.1% increase, and IM open interest was 392878 with a -2.4% change [5] - The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 18111 billion yuan, an increase of 870 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with energy metals, precious metals, insurance, batteries, fertilizers, small metals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, while decoration and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5] Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook - The central economic work conference stated that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. Various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism [5] - Yesterday afternoon, the stock index rose significantly, with the large - finance sector leading the gains. Policy support signals emerged, and many CSI 300 ETFs and SSE 50 ETFs showed abnormal trading volumes [6] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing a layout window. Investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win rates [6] Group 4: Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount for the current contract is 6.67%, the next - month contract is 6.02%, the current - quarter contract is 4.10%, and the next - quarter contract is 4.28% [7] - IH premium/discount for the current contract is 27.32%, the next - month contract is 4.34%, the current - quarter contract is 1.45%, and the next - quarter contract is 1.44% [7] - IC premium/discount for the current contract is - 22.92%, the next - month contract is 5.12%, the current - quarter contract is 7.80%, and the next - quarter contract is 9.39% [7] - IM premium/discount for the current contract is - 15.68%, the next - month contract is 10.14%, the current - quarter contract is 11.56%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.48% [7]