黑色金属数据日报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, cost support is strengthening. With the potential for winter storage and restocking, and positive steel mill profits, there may be a drive for production resumption. It is advisable to consider short - term long positions with stop - loss settings [2]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the fundamentals are under pressure, and upward resistance remains strong. Despite policy - driven price sentiment, the direct demand is weak, and there is a mid - term supply surplus [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the night - session prices strengthened. Although the steel market is weak, there is a possibility of winter storage and restocking, and the rebound is expected to continue [6]. - For iron ore, the molten iron output has declined, and the price is under pressure due to rising inventory. Once the molten iron output stabilizes and steel mills resume production, there will be a demand for restocking [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On December 17, the closing prices of far - month contracts for various products such as RB2610, HC2610, etc., showed different changes. For example, RB2610 closed at 3113.00 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase, and HC2610 closed at 3258.00 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase. Near - month contracts also had their respective price movements [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits of different contracts changed. For instance, the RB2605 - 2610 spread was - 29.00 yuan/ton with a change of - 130, and the volume - to - screw spread was 161.00 yuan/ton with a - 4.00 change [1]. Spot Market - Steel: On December 17, the spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou螺纹 were 3290.00 yuan/ton, 3170.00 yuan/ton, and 3480.00 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou热卷 were 3280.00 yuan/ton, 3270.00 yuan/ton, and 3280.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Others: The prices of other products such as唐山普方坯,普氏指数, and various ores also had their respective values and changes on December 17 [1]. Market Analysis by Product - Steel: The cost support is strengthening. The steel price is in a low - level shock. The hot - rolled coil can be operated by rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage or supplemented with option strategies [2][7]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: The fundamentals are under pressure. The demand is weak, and the supply is in a mid - term surplus. The supply of silicon iron is more likely to be affected by policies [3][5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The night - session prices strengthened. The market is affected by policies and the possibility of winter storage and restocking. The rebound is expected to continue [6]. - Iron Ore: The molten iron output has declined, and the price is under pressure. Once the molten iron output stabilizes and steel mills resume production, there will be a demand for restocking [7].