日度策略参考-20251218

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon, palm oil [1] - Neutral: Iron ore, silicon iron, glass, etc. [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The market sentiment has been volatile recently, with significant price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the opportunities for low - level long positions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity and Bond Markets - Stock Index: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential after adjustment. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Commodity Markets Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: The industry has limited industrial drivers, with aluminum prices fluctuating widely at high levels. The production and inventory of domestic alumina continue to increase, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although there is a short - term price rebound, the upward drive is limited [1]. - Zinc: The short - term macro - positive factors have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. However, the zinc price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to low - level long opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has been oscillating after a decline with increasing positions. If the macro - situation improves or supply - side disturbances increase, there will be a demand for position reduction and repair. Short - term operations are recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will remain in surplus [1]. Black Metals - Steel Products: The black sector has declined due to various factors, but coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization after the announcement of the steel export licensing system. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They have shown signs of stabilization after the "bad news is out". Attention should be paid to the spot situation and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: It is bearish. The USDA report has no highlights, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported soybean auctions on supply [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop cotton has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the market [1]. - BR Rubber: It is bullish. The成交 of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. Shipping Market - Container Shipping on European Routes: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].