中辉农产品观点-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term consolidation. Sino - US soybean purchases have started, but poor US soybean export data is bearish for the US market sentiment. South American weather rainfall has improved, and there is a lack of bullish drivers. Although the latest domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased week - on - week, it is still high year - on - year. Supply in December is expected to be sufficient for now, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile short - term trend [2][5]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term rebound. Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventory is still high year - on - year. During the off - season, the spot price is reduced to destock. There is no major expected change in fundamentals. Import diversification is gradually replacing the Sino - Canadian import contradiction issue, and there is no strong driver for now. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the subsequent progress of Sino - Canadian trade [2]. - Palm Oil: Short - term consolidation. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month decreased month - on - month. The Malaysian government's expectation of inventory accumulation in December and the average rainfall in Southeast Asia in the second half of the month have combined to create a bearish market sentiment. However, as Southeast Asia gradually enters the production - reduction season, existing short positions in palm oil can be temporarily held, and short - selling operations should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the adjustment and stabilization [2][10]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term oscillation. The domestic soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased week - on - week but is still higher than the five - year average. The improvement in South American weather and weak data from the palm oil side provide insufficient support. Soybean oil is in a bearish downward trend. Attention should be paid to the previous low technical support level, as well as South American weather and US biodiesel policy progress [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound oscillation. Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. Port inventory has continued to decline month - on - month. However, the diversification of imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed, along with the high - yield of global and Canadian rapeseed, and the commercialization of Australian rapeseed imports are bearish for market sentiment. Rapeseed oil is operating weakly. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the subsequent progress of Sino - Canadian trade [2]. - Cotton: Oscillating with a bullish bias. The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, and Brazil has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to operate in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales progress has significantly slowed down. There is a need to be vigilant against short - term correction risks under market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the change in the subsequent commercial inventory accumulation speed. In terms of operations, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to enter long positions on corrections, and also to the long - term moderate recovery opportunity under the supply - side narrative [2][14]. - Red Dates: Weak operation. At the end of the acquisition period, the upward trend of the spot price has paused, and as the peak of new - product listing and the consumption peak season arrive, the price fluctuation on the futures market will increase. High inventory still exerts significant pressure on the rebound of red date prices. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the futures market, most of the premium caused by the speculation of a significant reduction in new - season red date production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of short positions on the futures market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In the cooling market environment, attention should be paid to the short - term rebound opportunity at the bottom [2][17]. - Live Pigs: Short - sell on rebounds. As the Winter Solstice approaches, the release of live pig slaughter will be concentrated. Although demand indicators such as fresh - meat sales and slaughter have improved, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, and the short - term driving force for pig price increase is limited. Coupled with the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in second - fattening, even if the Winter Solstice expectation fails, the inventory in December will be difficult to clear effectively, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For futures contracts, the 01 contract is only 12 trading days away from the delivery month and is likely to oscillate weakly under the delivery logic. For the 03 contract, in the absence of an unexpected spread of the epidemic, attention should be paid to the opportunity to short - sell on rebounds. For the 0911 contract, due to the divergence between the expected production reduction and capacity reduction, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices for now [2][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - Inventory Data: As of December 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.162 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 208,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3615 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239,600 tons (3.35%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.3807 million tons (22.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons (5.59%) and a year - on - year increase of 456,700 tons (71.34%). The physical inventory of soybean meal of 50 feed enterprises was 9.13 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous period and 1.05 days from the same period last year [4]. - Price Data: The futures price (主力日收盘) of soybean meal was 2,777 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.69%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,153.71 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soybean crushing profit of the national average was - 64.1098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.06 yuan from the previous day [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory Data: As of December 12, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, unchanged from the previous week; and the undelivered contract was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - Price Data: The futures price (主力日收盘) of rapeseed meal was 2,359 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.77%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,507.37 yuan/ton, up 9.48 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 517.094 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.19 yuan from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - Inventory Data: As of December 12, 2025 (the 50th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 652,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons (4.53%) and a year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons (21.05%) [10]. - Price Data: The futures price (主力日收盘) of palm oil was 8,342 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan (- 0.81%) from the previous day. The national average price was 8,448 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.47%) from the previous day. The import cost was 8,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan from the previous day [9]. Cotton - International Situation: In the US, the cotton harvest is nearing the end, and more than 1.5 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is between 16,000 and 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons have been purchased under the MSP. However, there was rainfall in the southern and central regions in late November, which was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the cotton processing progress in 2025 was 73.87%, and the non - main production areas have started sowing new cotton for the 2026 season, with heavy rainfall expected in the main production areas until the end of November [12]. - Domestic Situation: New cotton picking is basically completed, with more than 5.4 million tons inspected. The sales progress has significantly slowed down, only increasing by 0.2% to 41.6%. The national total production is expected to be increased by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In terms of imports, the total imported cotton resources in October were 223,000 tons, almost unchanged from the previous month and 13,500 tons higher than the same period. The national commercial inventory has increased to 4.7 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the same period; the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 3.88 million tons, about 250,000 tons higher than the same period; and the inventory of the main inland provinces has increased to 190,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period. The terminal finished - product inventory level is relatively neutral and low [13]. - Price Data: The futures price of CF2601 (主力) was 13,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.07%) from the previous value. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,144 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.09%) from the previous value [11]. Red Dates - Supply and Inventory: The acquisition in the Hetian, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang areas has ended, and the acquisition in other production areas is also nearing the end, with the prices in the production areas showing a weakening trend. The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week was 15,790 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,880 tons and 2,848 tons higher than the same period [16]. - Price Data: The futures price of CJ2601 (主) was 8,830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The retail price of general - grade red dates was 7 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous value [15]. Live Pigs - Supply and Demand: In the short term, the farming side had active slaughter in November, and the scale enterprises had great pressure on slaughter volume, with the overall plan not well - completed. The planned slaughter volume in December has increased by 3.2%. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets of the Steel Union sample enterprises in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it is initially expected that the reduction target of 39.5 million tons will be basically achieved by the end of the year. The demand side has gradually entered a situation of both supply and demand booming, but the supply - side narrative may still be the dominant factor [19]. - Price Data: The futures closing price of 1h2601 was 11,375 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous value; the national average slaughter price of live pigs was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.69%) from the previous value [18].