Metal Futures Daily Strategy：有色金属月度策略-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increasing volatility. After the digestion of macro negative factors, along with the recovery of technology stocks and the support of fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a rebound. However, due to different fundamental support, there are still differences in strength within the non - ferrous metals sector. Attention should be paid to whether Japan's interest rate hike is realized, and if it is in line with expectations, the impact may be limited. This week, important data and central bank decisions from various countries need to be focused on [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The market has a certain willingness to take profits. After the digestion of negative factors, the buying at dips for fundamentally strong varieties and positive news for some varieties have led to a rebound in non - ferrous metals. There are also various economic data and events in China, the United States, and Japan, as well as new regulations from the LME [11]. - Investment Recommendations for Each Variety: - Copper: The price is expected to rise, with a support range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 94,500 - 95,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy at dips [13]. - Zinc: It is in a corrective adjustment, with support at 22,800 - 23,000 and pressure at 23,500 - 23,800. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is in an oscillatory adjustment, alumina is oscillating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and adjusting. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties [15]. - Tin: It is in an oscillatory arrangement, with support at 290,000 - 300,000 and pressure at 335,000 - 340,000. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [15]. - Lead: It is oscillating weakly, with support at 16,500 - 16,600 and pressure at 17,200 - 17,300. A double - selling strategy is recommended [16]. - Nickel: It shows a rebound, with support at 110,000 - 112,000 and pressure at 120,000 - 122,000. It is recommended for a short - term rebound [16]. - Stainless Steel: It fluctuates at a low level, with support at 12,200 - 12,300 and pressure at 12,700 - 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 92,820 with a 0.98% increase, and zinc closing at 22,970 with a 0.26% decrease [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the price change, the strength comparison of net long and short positions, the difference in net long and short positions, and the influencing factors of each variety [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 92,340 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 23,020 yuan/ton with a 0.65% decrease [22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, and aluminum inventory and price comparison [26][29][32]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [59][60]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper option historical volatility and the zinc option weighted implied volatility [78][80].