航运衍生品数据日报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Global major liner company CMA CGM's decision to use the Suez Canal for its INDAMEX route is a significant signal of container ships' large - scale return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mande Strait has reached the highest since January 2024 [6]. - The FEWB route in December saw shipping companies strictly control capacity, with a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9%. Combined with ship maintenance, reduced capacity; port congestion in Europe and strong e - commerce demand supported freight rates, and shipping companies' GRI push led the market up [6]. - The TAWB route had serious port congestion in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean due to labor disputes, with yard utilization over 90%, and many European countries faced shortages of containers and trailers [6]. - In the EC market, the spot price of Maersk for the first week of December was 2500, and the price to London was 2700, unchanged from early December. The market was in an oscillatory state [7]. - On the spot side, price quotes stabilized at 2400 US dollars. In December, the freight rate center increased by over 200 US dollars compared to the first half of the month. Shipping companies' coordinated price - holding actions strengthened market confidence. On the supply - demand side, European seasonal stocking increased cargo volume, shipping companies' loading rates improved, and effective supply was not overly loose. The limited progress of Red Sea re - navigation did not increase supply negatives, leading to the 2602 contract's upward oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - SCFI: The current value is 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value of 1398 [5]. - CCFI: The current value is 1118, up 0.29% from the previous value of 1115 [5]. - SCFI - US West: The current value is 1780, up 14.84% from the previous value of 1550 [5]. - SCFIS - US West: The current value is 924, down 3.75% from the previous value of 960 [5]. - SCFI - US East: The current value is 2652, up 14.56% from the previous value of 2315 [5]. - SCFI - Northwest Europe: The current value is 1538, up 9.86% from the previous value of 1400 [5]. - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: The current value is 1510, up 0.07% from the previous value of 1509 [5]. - SCFI - Mediterranean: The current value is 2737, up 19.00% from the previous value of 2300 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - Contract Prices: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values, previous values, and corresponding percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2506's current value is 1283.7, down 0.49% from the previous value of 1290.0 [5]. - Contract Positions: The current and previous positions and their changes are given for contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc. For example, EC2606's current position is 2306, with a change of 1 from the previous value of 2305 [5]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The current values, previous values, and changes of spreads like 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are presented. For example, the 12 - 02 spread's current value is - 67.8, down 12.5 from the previous value of - 55.3 [5]. 4. Strategy - Recommend a small - position short - selling attempt on the 02 contract when the price is high [10]