研究所日报-20251218

Fiscal Data - In the first 11 months of this year, national fiscal revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, consistent with the growth rate of the previous 10 months[2] - Central government revenue has shown a declining trend since the second half of 2023, with a continuous year-on-year contraction expected in 2024, although the decline is narrowing[2] - Local government revenue saw a minimum year-on-year growth rate near 0% at the beginning of 2024, but has gradually increased since then[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose in 2025, aiming to support economic growth and price recovery, with a focus on meeting the financing needs of the real economy[3] - Structural tools will target key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises[3] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.4%, with total trading volume reaching 1.811146 trillion yuan, an increase of 869.72 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index surged by 3.39%, while the STAR 50 Index rose by 2.47%[4] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on the 10-year government bond was 1.8367%, with a change of -1.2 basis points[5] - The US dollar index closed at 98.3983, up by 0.18%, while the offshore RMB depreciated against the dollar by 39 basis points, with an exchange rate of 7.04[6] Market Trends - The total market turnover was reported at 1.8344 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.53%[19] - The net inflow of funds was highest in the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electric power equipment sectors[24] Risks - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions between China and the US[27]