光大期货软商品日报-20251218

Group 1: Research Views - Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may have more upside than downside in the long term. On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.57% to 63.46 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.39% to 13,925 yuan per ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 17,680 lots to 731,300 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,715 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. The short - term consumption of cotton is okay, but there are doubts about its sustainability and pre - New Year restocking demand. The support comes from sentiment, policies, demand, and high outbound freight, while the pressure comes from high production, hedging pressure, and spinning operation sustainability [1]. - Sugar is in a weak and volatile state. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% increase from the previous year. Domestic spot prices continued to decline, and trading was average. The futures price is low, but market sentiment is still pessimistic. The medium - term futures view is bearish, but short - term short - selling at low levels should be avoided [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 5 with a 10 - point increase, the main basis is 1219 with a 34 - point increase. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,978 yuan per ton with a 10 - point increase, and the national spot price is 15,144 yuan per ton with a 14 - point increase [2]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 83 with a 3 - point increase, the main basis is 251 with a 16 - point decrease. The spot price in Nanning is 5320 yuan per ton with a 20 - point decrease, and in Liuzhou is 5390 yuan per ton with a 10 - point decrease [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On December 17, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3482, an increase of 283 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3898 [3]. - On December 17, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,978 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,186 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,183 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,294 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On December 17, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.6, a 0.1 - point decrease from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 27.9, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 31.8, a 0.1 - point increase from the previous day [3]. - On December 17, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5320 yuan per ton, a 20 - point decrease from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5390 yuan per ton, a 10 - point decrease from the previous day [3]. - On December 17, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 611, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1490 [4]. Group 4: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, participates in major projects, and has won many analyst awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass, and has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, etc., and has won relevant analyst titles [22]. Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [25].