碳酸锂日报-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On December 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.61% to 108,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 97,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 94,450 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,480 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 350 tons to 15,636 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased by 260 tons to 13,744 tons, the production from lithium mica decreased by 200 tons to 2,876 tons, the production from salt lakes decreased by 15 tons to 3,075 tons, and the production from recycled materials increased by 14 tons to 2,303 tons. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 384 tons to 18,313 tons, and the inventory decreased by 318 tons to 18,524 tons. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,336 tons to 94,144 tons, and the inventory decreased by 23 tons to 103,658 tons. The production of ternary materials in December is expected to decline by 7% month-on-month to 78,280 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% month-on-month to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 957 tons to 42,738 tons, other环节 inventory increasing by 430 tons to 49,570 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,606 tons to 19,161 tons [3]. - The cancellation of mining licenses is more of a follow-up to the issue of compliant lithium ore mining, not a contraction of lithium resource supply. Recently, the weekly social inventory has continued to decline, and the inventory turnover days decreased by 0.5 days week-on-week to 26.5 days. Due to recent overseas resource disturbances and the weakening expectation of the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo Mine, the expected negative factors did not materialize as scheduled. In the future, if the resumption of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi is combined with seasonal off - peak factors, it may lead to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or even inventory accumulation, and the price may still have a callback probability. However, under the strong demand expectation, the downstream's willingness to stock up may also be relatively strong, and the overall price performance may be more likely to rise than to fall. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm, the decline in production scheduling, and whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Futures and spot prices: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.61% to 108,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 97,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 94,450 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,480 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 350 tons to 15,636 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: Weekly supply increased, with different trends in production from various sources. December production is expected to increase. Weekly demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased, and December production is expected to decline. Weekly inventory decreased overall, with different changes in downstream, other环节, and upstream inventories [3]. - Market outlook: The cancellation of mining licenses is related to compliance, not supply contraction. Recent inventory decline and resource disturbances affected the market. Future price trends depend on project resumption, seasonal factors, and demand verification [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and lithium ore prices: The prices of futures contracts, lithium ore (such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone) increased on December 17, 2025, compared with December 16 [5]. - Lithium salt and other product prices: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and some other products increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The prices of some ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also had different changes [5]. - Battery prices: The prices of some battery cells and batteries, such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells, increased slightly [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][16]. - Spreads: Charts display the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][20]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other环节 from April to December 2025 [37][39]. - Production costs: Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [42].