光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251218

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish and volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Bullish operation [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices showed a volatile upward trend on Wednesday. The 01 contract closed at 1646 yuan/ton, up 1.29%, and the 05 contract closed at 1683 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The spot market was mostly stable, with prices in some regions fluctuating between -10 and +20 yuan/ton. The supply level of urea fluctuated slightly, with the daily output of the industry at 195,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The demand sentiment increased significantly, with the sales-to-production ratio in the mainstream regions rising to the range of 145% - 200%, and exceeding 300% in some regions. The short-term strengthening of market sentiment was boosted by India's new tender, but whether there will be new export quotas and policy relaxation in China remains to be verified. It is expected that the overall urea futures price will maintain a range-bound trend, with short-term sentiment being bullish. Attention should be paid to the spot trading atmosphere, Indian tender dynamics, and China's export policy dynamics [2]. - Soda ash futures prices showed a firm and volatile trend on Wednesday. The 01 contract closed at 1127 yuan/ton, down 0.27%, and the main 05 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton, up 0.78%. The spot market quotes were mostly stable, and the quotes in the trader segment fluctuated with the market sentiment. The supply level of soda ash was stable, with the industry's operating rate at 82.05% the previous day. Some regions reduced production loads, and there were still enterprises planning maintenance, so the supply of soda ash may fluctuate. The demand side was average, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices and mainly following up on rigid demand. The expectation of cold repair of glass production lines was strengthened, and the rigid demand for soda ash was also expected to decline further. The fundamentals of soda ash fluctuated slightly. The overall strengthening of related chemical and black series varieties in the futures market provided a linkage effect, and the market still had expectations for external factors such as macro, anti-involution, environmental protection, and real estate policies. It is expected that the short-term soda ash futures price will continue to rebound at a high level, but the current trend momentum is insufficient, and excessive chasing of gains is not recommended. Attention should be paid to the overall trend of the macro and commodity markets, changes in soda ash production capacity, changes in downstream production lines, and this week's inventory data [2]. - The glass futures price rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with the 05 contract rising more than 3%. The spot price was still weak, with the average price of the domestic float glass market at 1089 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. There were no obvious changes in the glass production lines recently, and the daily melting volume of the industry continued to remain at 155,000 tons. The cold repair plans of some production lines gradually became clear, and the market's concern about the continued decline in supply increased again. The overall strengthening of black and building materials varieties in the futures market also had a linkage effect on the glass futures price. In addition, the market still had expectations for external factors such as macro, anti-involution, environmental protection, and real estate policies, providing strong support for the bottom of the glass futures price. Currently, the demand for glass remained weak, with the sales-to-production ratios in the Shahe and Hubei regions both falling below 80%. Glass enterprises still had the intention to actively reduce inventory. Overall, driven by factors such as the macroeconomic recovery, the overall strengthening of commodities, and the expected decline in glass supply, the short-term trend of the futures market was bullish, but the sustainability of demand remained to be verified, and excessive chasing of gains was not recommended. Attention should be paid to the trend of the macro and commodity markets, changes in glass production lines, and spot trading conditions [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On December 17, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 11,202, a decrease of 12 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 271 [5]. - On December 17, the daily output of the urea industry was 195,000 tons, unchanged from the previous working day, and an increase of 159,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate was 80.62%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points compared with 79.24% in the same period last year [5]. - On December 17, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1670 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi 1540 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [5]. - On December 17, the inventory of urea enterprises was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.42% [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 17, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 4332, a decrease of 292 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 856. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 189, a decrease of 149 from the previous day [7]. - On December 17, the spot prices of soda ash were as follows: in North China, light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1350 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 930 yuan/ton [7]. - On December 17, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.05%, the same as the previous working day [8]. - On December 17, the average price of the float glass market was 1089 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The daily output of the industry was 155,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price spreads between different contracts, and the price spreads between urea and methanol, and glass and soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][18][19]