华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251218

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center moving downward and the market sentiment remaining pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation and lackluster winter storage [2][4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, with price fluctuations affected by macro - sentiment and ore - related news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production Disruptions: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process steel enterprises will have a total production reduction of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will stop production, with a daily production reduction of about 16,200 tons [4]. - Real Estate Transaction Data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - Market Outlook: The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with the price center moving downward. The winter storage is lackluster, and the price is expected to move in a range - bound manner. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Supply Situation: The current domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.39 million tons, with a small increase in operating capacity due to high profits, but no significant increase in supply [4]. - Demand Situation: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%. Different sectors have different performance, with the aluminum profile operating rate rebounding slightly, while the aluminum plate and strip and recycled aluminum sectors are under pressure [4]. - Inventory Situation: As of December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 596,000 tons, with a slight increase. Due to delayed shipments from Xinjiang and consumption resilience, the inventory has not entered a continuous accumulation phase [4]. - Market Outlook: The price is expected to remain high in the short term, with high prices suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, ore - mine resumption, and consumption release [5][6].