Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised; the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time; precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long; steel products are likely to remain weak, and investors can short at high levels; iron ore may experience a correction, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; coking coal and coke may stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider buying at low levels; ferroalloys may be considered for low - level long positions after losses in the spot market widen; crude oil and fuel oil are recommended for temporary observation; polyolefins can be considered for long positions; synthetic and natural rubber are expected to fluctuate; PVC requires attention to supply - side changes; urea has limited downside space; PX and PTA may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes; ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes; short - fiber may fluctuate with costs; bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations; lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom; copper may have a technical correction risk; aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level; zinc should be chased with caution; lead may continue to fluctuate; tin may fluctuate strongly; nickel may fluctuate; soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range; palm oil and rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation; cotton is expected to run strongly; sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate; apples are expected to run strongly; pigs can be considered for observation; eggs are recommended for temporary observation; corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [6][10][12][15][17][20][23][25][28][30][32][34][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][50][51][53][55][58][62][66][67][71][73][77] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.63%, 0.10%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan on the day. From January to November, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year; expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year [5] - Outlook: The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] Stock Index - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 1.86%, 1.43%, 2.02%, and 1.54% respectively [8] - Outlook: The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time [10][11] Precious Metals - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.85%, and the silver main contract rose 5.77%. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex [12] - Outlook: Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3,150 - 3,280 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3,250 - 3,270 yuan/ton [14] - Outlook: The price of rebar may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels [15] Iron Ore - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of PB powder is 784 yuan/ton, and super - special powder is 675 yuan/ton. Since October, national hot - metal daily output has declined, and port inventory has increased [17] - Outlook: The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can short at high levels [17] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and downstream demand is weak. The second - round price cut of coke spot purchases has landed [19] - Outlook: Coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and stabilize, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can consider buying at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.16%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.06%. Manganese ore supply is tight, and the cost is rising. The production of ferroalloys is declining, and the demand is weak [22] - Outlook: Ferroalloys are in an overall oversupply situation. After losses in the spot market widen, low - level long positions can be considered [23] Crude Oil - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and CFTC data show that funds are bearish on the future of crude oil [24][25] - Outlook: The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [25][26] Fuel Oil - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has reached a 13 - week high due to increased imports and weak consumption [27] - Outlook: The fuel oil price is under pressure, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [28] Polyolefins - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE price fell. The market supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [29] - Outlook: The polyolefin fundamentals are weak, and investors can consider long positions [29][30] Synthetic Rubber - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 2.81%. The cost is supported, and the supply has slightly increased. The tire demand is slow [31] - Outlook: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][32] Natural Rubber - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.42%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 1.53%. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, and the demand is slow. The inventory is increasing [32] - Outlook: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate [32][33] PVC - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 1.17%. The supply exceeds demand, the device utilization rate has decreased, and the demand has declined [34] - Outlook: Pay attention to the supply - side changes of PVC [34] Urea - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 1.29%. The daily output is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak [35] - Outlook: The downside space of urea is limited [35][36] PX - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 0.47%. The PX load has declined slightly, and the short - process profit has improved [37] - Outlook: PX may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [37] PTA - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.3%. The PTA load is 73.7%, the polyester load is 91.2%, and the processing fee has recovered [38] - Outlook: PTA may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.67%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened [39] - Outlook: Ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39] Short - Fiber - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.43%. The device load has decreased, the demand has changed little, and the inventory is stable [40] - Outlook: Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40] Bottle Chips - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract rose 0.28%. The processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, the load has slightly decreased, and the export growth has slowed down [41] - Outlook: Bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations [41] Lithium Carbonate - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 7.6%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The inventory is gradually decreasing [42] - Outlook: Lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom [42] Copper - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.51%. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, the production has recovered, but the terminal procurement has weakened [43] - Outlook: Copper may have a technical correction risk [43][44] Aluminum - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.75%, and the alumina main contract rose 0.9%. Alumina supply exceeds demand, and electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained. The inventory has decreased [45] - Outlook: Aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level [45][46] Zinc - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.59%. The refined zinc production has decreased, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased [46] - Outlook: Chase zinc with caution [46][47] Lead - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.33%. The supply has shrunk, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased [48] - Outlook: Lead may continue to fluctuate [48] Tin - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 2.84%. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [49][50] - Outlook: Tin may fluctuate strongly [50] Nickel - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.51%. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51] - Outlook: Nickel may fluctuate [51] Soybean Oil and Meal - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.45%, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.89%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the oil - mill crushing is at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large [52] - Outlook: Soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range [53] Palm Oil - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the palm oil night session strengthened. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, the Indian inventory has decreased, and the Malaysian exports have declined [54] - Outlook: Palm oil is recommended for temporary observation [55] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the rapeseed price fell. The US biofuel blending decision is postponed, the domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory is in the middle or high level of the past seven years [56][57] - Outlook: Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation [58] Cotton - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly, and overseas cotton rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area will be reduced by more than 10%. The global cotton inventory has increased, and the textile and clothing exports are relatively stable [59][60][61] - Outlook: Cotton is expected to run strongly [62] Sugar - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas raw sugar fell. Brazilian sugar production has decreased, Indian sugar production has increased, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing [63][64][65] - Outlook: Sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate [66] Apples - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [67] - Outlook: Apples are expected to run strongly [68] Pigs - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the national average pig price rose. The consumption is improving, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is fluctuating at a low level [69][70][71] - Outlook: Observe the follow - up consumption changes and consider waiting and seeing [71] Eggs - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the main - producing area egg price was flat, and the main - selling area egg price was flat. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, the cost is rising, and the profit is low [72] - Outlook: Eggs are recommended for temporary observation [73] Corn and Starch - Market Conditions: The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.14%, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.12%. The northern port inventory may accumulate, the demand is growing slightly, and the corn starch inventory is at a high level [74][75][76] - Outlook: Corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [77]
早间评论-20251218
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-12-18 06:22