宏观经济点评：政府性基金支出大幅回暖

Revenue Insights - In November, the national general public budget revenue was 1,402.6 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.02%[2] - Tax revenue growth slowed down, with November tax revenue recorded at 1,145.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 8.6% in the previous month[2] - Non-tax revenue in November was 257.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month[2] Expenditure Trends - General budget expenditure in November was 2,271.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, but showing a marginal improvement from a previous decline of 9.8%[3] - Social security and employment expenditure saw a significant drop, decreasing by 7% in November, marking a rare negative growth in the past three years[3] - Science and technology expenditure increased significantly by 28 percentage points to 27% in November, indicating a focus on innovation[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in November was 580.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, but the decline was less than the previous month by 2.6 percentage points[4] - Government fund expenditure surged to 1,123.2 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41 percentage points, indicating a strong recovery in spending[4] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, contributing to the significant increase in government fund expenditure[4] Fiscal Health Outlook - The overall fiscal revenue decline is expected to be manageable, with potential revenue gaps estimated at around 340 billion yuan under certain assumptions[4] - If the government fund revenue growth continues as in November, the total revenue gap could exceed 750 billion yuan, but the impact on the economy is expected to be limited[4]