集运日报：或对未来运价走势存疑，主力合约冲高回落，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈-20251218

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract first rose and then fell, in line with the daily report's expectation, and all positions were advised to be closed for profit [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Indicators - The euro - zone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value [2] - The euro - zone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [2] - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3] - The US November S&P Global services PMI flash was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [3] 3.3 Market Conditions - On December 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1699.8, down 0.68%, with a trading volume of 24,200 lots and an open interest of 32,000 lots, a decrease of 512 lots from the previous day [3] - There is a long - short game in the market, and the bullish sentiment has declined. The main contract first rose and then fell [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounded after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slowed down. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the main contract with a light position, all positions were advised to be closed for profit, no additional positions or holding losses were recommended, and stop - losses should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: All contracts were advised to close for profit when the price rose, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] 3.5 Contract Regulations - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4] 3.6 Geopolitical Event - On December 14, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas confirmed that its military manufacturing department head, Rad Said Saad, was killed in an Israeli attack, which violated the cease - fire agreement [5]