纯苯、苯乙烯日报：纯苯苯乙烯高库存淡季，承压震荡运行-20251218

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Pure benzene is in a short - term pattern of "high inventory, weak demand, and low profit", with prices mainly in a fluctuating state [2] - The short - term supply - demand of styrene is becoming more balanced, with insufficient upward price drivers, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and device dynamics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Price: On December 17, the main styrene contract closed down 1.37% at 6,404 yuan/ton, and the main pure benzene contract closed down 0.96% at 5,388 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: On December 17, Brent crude closed at $55.1/barrel (-$1.7/barrel), WTI crude closed at $58.9/barrel (-$1.7/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,285 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (-1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+3.6 tons) [2] - Supply: Styrene production was 34.2 tons (+0.7 tons) with a capacity utilization rate of 68.3% (-0.6%) [2] - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries is recovering. EPS capacity utilization was 53.8% (-2.6%), ABS was 70.5% (+2.2%), and PS was 58.3% (-0.7%) [2] 3.1.2 Views - Pure benzene: The peak of domestic pure benzene arrivals has ended, but high inventory suppresses prices. Overseas, the marginal support of gasoline blending for aromatics is weak, and the US - South Korea price difference is being repaired. Supply has decreased due to low profits, and demand remains weak as downstream industries are in the off - season [2] - Styrene: East China port and commercial inventories are decreasing but still being rebuilt. The basis has peaked and started to decline. The market focuses on device restart progress, and downstream提货 is slowing down. Supply is at a medium - low level, and non - integrated device profits are under pressure. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream load is weak [3] 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices | Data Indicator | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---| | Styrene (Futures Main Contract) | 6,493.0 yuan/ton | 6,404.0 yuan/ton | -1.37% | | Styrene (Spot) | 6,780.0 yuan/ton | 6,776.0 yuan/ton | -0.06% | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Contract) | 5,440.0 yuan/ton | 5,388.0 yuan/ton | -0.96% | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 5,295.0 yuan/ton | 5,285.0 yuan/ton | -0.19% | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | $656.3/ton | $656.3/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | $840.3/ton | $834.1/ton | -0.74% | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | $663.8/ton | $663.8/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Spread | -367.9 yuan/ton | -375.6 yuan/ton | -2.09% | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Spread | -5.0 yuan/ton | -15.0 yuan/ton | -200.00% | | Brent Crude | $56.8/ton | $55.1/ton | -2.97% | | WTI Crude | $60.6/ton | $58.9/ton | -2.71% | | Naphtha | 7,066.5 yuan/ton | 7,016.5 yuan/ton | -0.71% | [5] 3.2.2 Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory | Data Indicator | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/05 | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---| | Styrene Production (China) | 33.5 tons | 34.2 tons | 2.32% | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 44.6 tons | 43.9 tons | -1.70% | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 16.4 tons | 16.1 tons | -2.19% | | Styrene Factory Inventory (Domestic) | 19.0 tons | 17.6 tons | -7.49% | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 16.4 tons | 22.4 tons | 36.59% | [6] 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization Rate | Industry | Capacity Utilization Rate | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/05 | Change | |---|---|---|---|---| | Pure Benzene Downstream - Styrene | % | 67.3 | 68.9 | +1.56 | | Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam | % | 86.7 | 79.2 | -7.53 | | Pure Benzene Downstream - Phenol | % | 81.2 | 81.7 | +0.57 | | Pure Benzene Downstream - Aniline | % | 77.2 | 77.2 | +0.04 | | Styrene Downstream - EPS | % | 54.7 | 56.4 | +1.61 | | Styrene Downstream - ABS | % | 71.2 | 68.3 | -2.90 | | Styrene Downstream - PS | % | 57.6 | 59.0 | +1.40 | [7] 3.3 Industry News - Canada provided an additional CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8] - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [8] - Fitch lowered the oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027, indicating market oversupply [8] - Venezuela's daily oil exports exceeded 900,000 barrels in November despite US pressure [8] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that some areas of the US economy showed signs of weakness and needed interest rate cuts [8] - The US EIA crude inventory for the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 250,000 barrels [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port and factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization rates of related industries [13][18][22]