11月财政数据点评:财政的四大发力点
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-18 07:10

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 248,538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[6] Fiscal Trends - In November, broad fiscal expenditure showed improvement with a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a significant narrowing of 17.5 percentage points compared to October[7] - Broad fiscal revenue in November fell by 5.2% year-on-year, a further decline of 4.6 percentage points from October's -0.6%[7] Budget Completion and Support - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in November rose to 8%, up from 5.6% in October, indicating a year-end acceleration in spending[7] - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue was 7%, consistent with the previous year and the five-year average[16] Factors Affecting Revenue - The decline in revenue is partly due to high base effects and ongoing weakness in land finance, with November's general public budget revenue showing a minimal change of -0.02% year-on-year[9] - Land finance continues to be a drag, with land transfer income remaining in negative growth territory[9] Future Fiscal Focus - Future fiscal priorities may include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, standardizing tax incentives, addressing local fiscal difficulties, and encouraging local debt management[3] - The emphasis will be on resolving issues related to local hidden debts and supplementing local financial resources[15] Expenditure Insights - General fiscal expenditure in November showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, but this was a significant improvement from October's decline of over 6 percentage points[29] - Health and technology-related expenditures saw notable increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.5% and 27.4%, respectively[29] Government Fund Performance - Government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, a significant recovery from previous declines[32] - The budget completion rate for government fund expenditure was 9.3%, below the five-year average of 10%[20]

11月财政数据点评:财政的四大发力点 - Reportify