锂矿消息点燃市场，但回归理性后有短期回调风险

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The lithium ore news has ignited the market, but there is a risk of short - term correction after returning to rationality. In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [1][3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - Main Contract and Basis: On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 7.97% increase. The basis weakened significantly, widening from - 4,800 yuan/ton to - 11,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 7,020 yuan/ton [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.38% to 668,589 lots. The trading volume expanded sharply by 93.97% to 1,158,611 lots [1]. - Analysis of Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The price of spodumene concentrate remained stable at 9,665 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate stayed at 5,175 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% on December 5, 2025, to 83.52% on December 12, 2025, an increase of 10.86%, indicating an expansion of supply - side capacity. The Lijiagou lithium ore project reached full production in late August 2025, with an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate, strengthening supply stability. The cancellation of mining rights in Yichun, Jiangxi, did not affect the current supply as the relevant mines had stopped production [2]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 146,300 yuan/ton, and that of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 39,845 yuan/ton to 40,140 yuan/ton. The sales volume of new energy vehicles declined year - on - year in early December, reflecting weak terminal demand. Wanrun New Energy upgraded its production line to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate, indicating a shift in demand towards high - end products, but the overall demand growth was limited [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory dropped to 111,469 tons on December 12, a decrease of 1.88%, showing a continuous de - stocking trend [2]. - Price Trend Judgment: In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. The increase in supply - side capacity utilization and the full production of mines strengthen supply stability, the decline in new energy vehicle sales restrains downstream purchasing willingness, and the current futures price has exceeded the acceptable range of downstream material manufacturers. Although inventory de - stocking provides some support, it is not enough to reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a 7.97% increase; the basis was - 11,820 yuan/ton, down 7,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a - 146.25% change; the position of the main contract was 668,589 lots, up 2,562 lots from December 16, a 0.38% increase; the trading volume of the main contract was 1,158,611 lots, up 561,294 lots from December 16, a 93.97% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 96,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from December 16, a 1.04% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials was 146,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.21% increase; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 40,140 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.74% increase [5]. - From December 5 to December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% to 83.52%, an 8.18 - percentage - point increase; the lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 113,602 tons to 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease, a 1.88% decline. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells rose from 0.34 yuan/Wh to 0.35 yuan/Wh, a 1.45% increase, while the prices of other types of cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - Spot Market Quotes: On December 17, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97,171 yuan/ton, up 1,209 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,600 - 99,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 - 95,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose significantly, once rising more than 8% during the session, with a closing price of 108,620 yuan/ton. This market trend was mainly driven by market sentiment, triggered by the publicity of canceling 27 mining rights by the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun, Jiangxi. However, the involved lithium - containing porcelain clay mines had stopped production before 2025, so this event had no substantial impact on the current and subsequent supply stability of lithium carbonate. The abnormal price increase mainly reflected emotional fluctuations and was weakly related to industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the acceptable range of most downstream material manufacturers, and market transactions are mainly supported by the rigid - demand purchases of a small number of enterprises [6]. - Downstream Consumption Situation: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 10, from December 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease and a 10% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,165.7 million units, a 19% year - on - year increase. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 191,000 units, a 22% year - on - year decrease and a 20% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1,394.7 million units, a 27% year - on - year increase [7]. - Industry News: In recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries, represented by CATL's Shenxing battery and BYD's blade battery, have accelerated their penetration in the market, and the demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials has been increasing. Wanrun New Energy announced that it will upgrade the production line of its "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate products. On November 26, Chuanneng Power mentioned in an institutional survey that it holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium ore, with a proven ore resource reserve of 3.8812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [9].