信用利差周报2025年第47期：中央经济工作会议延续积极政策基调，美联储再度降息减轻外部约束-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference continued the positive policy tone, and the Fed's interest rate cut eased external constraints. The credit bond market in 2026 will have relatively stable liquidity support and structural development opportunities under the "moderately loose" monetary environment and clear policy guidance. However, it may present a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to focus on the coupon value of medium - short - term and high - grade bonds [4][14]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - Central Economic Work Conference and Credit Bond Market: The conference set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing support for key areas such as scientific and technological innovation. The "Science and Technology Board" in the bond market promoted the development of science and technology bonds, with the stock scale reaching 3.37 trillion yuan and the ETF product scale exceeding 250 billion yuan. The current bond market default risk is generally stable, but tail and local risks still need attention. The credit bond market is expected to achieve stable and healthy development [11][13][14]. - Fed's Interest Rate Cut: On December 10, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp for the third time this year. Although it eases the pressure of the inverted Sino - US interest rate spread and provides space for China's monetary policy, the credit bond market is still mainly determined by domestic fundamentals and policies. The market is likely to be volatile, and investors are advised to adopt a prudent strategy [15][16][18]. Macroeconomic Data - In November, the year - on - year CPI growth rate reached 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, indicating the continuous recovery of consumer demand. The year - on - year PPI decline was 2.2%. The social financing scale stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5%. The M1 year - on - year growth rate was 4.9%, and the M2 was 8.0%, with the M2 - M1 gap widening to 3.1 percentage points [6][20]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 470 million yuan through open - market operations. Due to seasonal factors, the capital market tightened, and most capital prices rose. The DR001 decreased by 3bp, while other repurchase rates increased by 2 - 7bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor remained stable [22][23]. Credit Bond Primary Market - Last week, the credit bond issuance scale was 274.812 billion yuan, showing a recovery. The issuance scale of different bond types and industries varied. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of financing, and most industries in industrial bonds also had net inflows. The average issuance cost of credit bonds showed a long - short differentiation, with the 1 - year average issuance rate decreasing and the 3 - year and 5 - year rates mostly increasing [27][35]. Credit Bond Secondary Market - The trading volume of the bond secondary market reached 8.715913 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.82 billion yuan from the previous period, indicating increased trading activity. Bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping to 1.84%. Most credit spreads of AAA - rated bonds narrowed, and the rating spreads fluctuated [36][38][43].