铜日报：电解铜9万上方维持强势，长期供应短缺预期持续-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The copper futures price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, with a price range of 90,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The expansion of new production capacity on the supply side increases supply pressure, the weak demand side restricts the upside space, and the macro - sentiment is cautious with a risk of correction [3][55]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 17, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 92,630 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the premium copper discount deepening to - 125 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the LME(0 - 3) discount also deepening to - 9.52 dollars/ton [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: LME positions slightly decreased by 435 lots to 350,621 lots on December 16. SHFE inventory increased to 166,600 tons, possibly reflecting increased position pressure [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The supply side shows an expansion trend. On December 17, KMS electrolytic copper became an LME - registered brand, adding an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons, and Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru to increase regional production capacity. However, there is a local supply shortage, such as the tight supply of recycled brass in Ningbo [2]. - Demand Side: The demand side is weak. The transaction price of recycled copper rod orders in Hubei is lower than the quoted price, indicating insufficient actual demand. Although the commercial refrigeration compressor market slightly recovered in the third quarter, overall, affected by the global economic weakness, the support from the power, construction and other fields is limited [2]. - Inventory Side: Inventory shows obvious differentiation. LME inventory decreased by 1.98% to 44,877 tons on December 17, while SHFE inventory increased to 166,600 tons, and COMEX inventory also increased, leading to an increase in global inventory pressure [2]. Price Trend Judgment The copper futures price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks. The new production capacity and project expansion on the supply side increase supply pressure, the weak demand signs such as reduced orders on the demand side restrict the upside space, and the macro - sentiment is cautious with a risk of correction. The copper price is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Price: On December 17, the SMM:1 copper price was 92,300 yuan/ton, a 0.33% increase from the previous day. The SHFE price was 92,630 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase from the previous day. The discounts of premium copper, flat - water copper and wet - process copper all deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount also weakened [5]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 907 tons to 44,877 tons on December 17, a 1.98% decrease. SHFE inventory increased on December 16, and COMEX inventory also increased [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 17, the supply of recycled brass in Ningbo was tight, and the trading was mainly small orders for rigid demand [6]. - On December 17, KMS electrolytic copper produced by China Non - Ferrous Mining Group became an LME - registered brand, with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons [6]. - On December 17, Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru, expanding its business in Peru [6]. - On December 16, Shandong Province released a plan for the high - quality development of the copper industry from 2025 - 2027, aiming to build four major copper industry clusters [7]. - On December 16, the environmental impact assessment of a 50,000 - ton anode copper project of Hubei Zeming Enterprise Investment Group Co., Ltd. was publicly announced for the first time [7]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position situation, LME copper net long position analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][10][12].