Changjiang Securities·2025-12-18 08:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the insurance sector [11]. Core Insights - In the short term, investment yield is the dominant factor for valuation, while asset allocation ratio is the decisive factor for investment yield. In the medium to long term, the spread between the asset and liability sides of insurance is expected to improve due to policy and market changes, with sufficient long-term space in the industry leading to continuous improvement in ROE [3][9]. - Recommended stocks include China Life, New China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance as quality targets [3][9]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The insurance sector's performance was generally flat compared to the market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 15% and the Yangtze Insurance Index increasing by 14.5%, underperforming the market by 0.6 percentage points. Individual stocks like Ping An, New China Life, and China Pacific outperformed the market [6][23]. - The liability side is undergoing a transformation towards dividends, with new policy growth slightly slowing but value rates improving, driving new business value growth. The asset side performed well due to strong equity market performance, contributing to good total investment returns [6][23]. Investment Yield Analysis - The primary determinant of insurance companies' investment yield is asset allocation. As of Q3 2025, listed insurance companies had total investment assets exceeding 20 trillion yuan, indicating that investment yield is mainly influenced by asset allocation rather than significant and sustained alpha generation [6][39]. - Even in an extremely low-interest-rate environment, yields can remain above 2%, demonstrating that the risk of spread loss for listed insurance companies is minimal [6][39]. Pricing of the Insurance Sector - Over the past decade, expected investment yield has been the anchor for insurance industry valuation. The short-term valuation is primarily influenced by yield expectations, as the liability cost rate fluctuates less in the short term [7][71]. - The report emphasizes that the asset side, particularly equity assets, has a stronger influence on investment yield than the liability side, which has limited impact due to its long-term nature [7][71]. Future Demand and Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that insurance demand will remain high in 2026, driven by a significant amount of fixed deposits and wealth management products maturing. The comparative advantage of insurance products in terms of yield is expected to attract funds from fixed deposits without requiring an increase in risk appetite [8][84]. - The industry landscape is expected to continue improving, with leading listed insurance companies benefiting more from this trend [8][84].