瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, the prices of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new - season sugar from Guangxi in sales areas, the competition among the three sugar sources under poor market transactions has a negative impact on prices [2]. - As of the current incomplete statistics, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than the same period last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than the same period last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production. Overall, as the new - season sugar - making reaches its peak, supply continues to increase, spot prices weaken, and there is a lack of positive drivers. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 518,010 lots, an increase of 30,075 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 78,980 lots, an increase of 2,578 lots [2]. - The total effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 1,490, unchanged; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,172 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840,330 hectares, an increase of 5,240 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 billion tons, an increase of 549,000 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 894,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons [2]. - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 44,800 tons, a decrease of 237,400 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.302 billion tons, a decrease of 903,000 tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; the cumulative sugar import volume is 3.9 billion tons, an increase of 740,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 883,000 tons, an increase of 343,900 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1.0962 billion tons, a decrease of 495,500 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.68%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.67%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.9%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of November 25, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 194,604 lots, an increase of 6,204 lots from the previous week. The long position was 148,893 lots, a decrease of 1,574 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 343,497 lots, an increase of 4,630 lots from the previous week [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. The decline of the Brazilian real encouraged Brazilian sugar producers to increase exports. The contract closed down 0.06 cents, or 0.40%, at 14.76 cents per pound [2].