Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-18 08:33Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 18, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1126.5, up 6.07%. Coking coal continued its technical rebound. The mine capacity utilization rate has been rising, and the mine - end clean coal inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The mid - and downstream inventories increased this period. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [2] - On December 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1603.5, up 5.39%. There was a second - round price cut on the spot side. The central government plans to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. The coke inventory is moderately weak, and the steel mill inventory increased this period. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1126.50 yuan/ton, up 64.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1603.50 yuan/ton, up 73.00 yuan. - The JM futures contract position was 703005.00 lots, down 5489.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 38997.00 lots, down 2591.00 lots. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 39347.00 lots, up 10104.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was 48.00 lots, down 701.00 lots. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 110.50 yuan/ton, up 19.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 139.50 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 200.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 919.00 yuan/ton, down 51.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 160.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The JM main contract basis was 483.50 yuan/ton, down 64.50 yuan; the J main contract basis was 171.50 yuan/ton, down 73.00 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.30 million tons per day, down 0.60 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 327.30 million tons per week, down 5.10 million tons. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, down 0.01%; the raw coal output was 42679.30 million tons per month, up 2004.30 million tons. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.00 million tons per month, up 231.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 192.70 million tons, up 2.90 million tons. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 481.60 million tons per week, up 11.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 248.60 million tons per week, up 2.80 million tons. - The total inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 1037.30 million tons per week, up 28.10 million tons; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country was 794.65 million tons per week. - The inventory of coke in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 87.32 million tons per week, up 10.88 million tons; the inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills across the country was 635.28 million tons per week, up 10.03 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises were 12.82 days per week, down 0.06 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills were 11.66 days per week, up 0.37 days. - The import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons per month, down 33.04 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 72.00 million tons per month, down 1.00 million tons. - The output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons per month, up 255.59 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.16%, down 0.68%. - The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 44.00 yuan/ton per week, up 14.00 yuan. - The output of coke was 4170.30 million tons per month, down 19.30 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country was 78.61% per week, down 1.53%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.90% per week, down 1.16%. - The crude steel output was 6987.10 million tons per month, down 212.60 million tons. [2] Industry News - In 2025, China's indirect steel exports are estimated to reach about 143 million tons, an increase of 9.5 million tons year - on - year, with a growth rate of about 7%. It is expected to continue to grow in 2026, reaching about 150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 4% - 5%. - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 200516 billion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; the national general public budget expenditure was 248538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. - In 2025, the new silicon - iron production capacity was mainly concentrated in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, with 33000 tons put into production in Gansu and 81000 tons in Inner Mongolia, accounting for 1.16% of the total production capacity. In 2026, the silicon - iron production capacity is expected to reach 1041300 tons, with an annual output of 560000 - 570000 tons. - According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand increased by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8850 million tons, but demand has entered a plateau. [2]