瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The port shows a trend of inventory accumulation, with relatively loose supply. However, steel mills' raw material inventories are generally at medium - low levels. Near the year - end winter storage, there is a certain expectation for buying, and the firm spot prices support the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 777.50 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan; the position volume is 518,155 lots, up 29,159 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread is 19.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 14,165 lots, up 5,994 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 1,300 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 104.75 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.10 US dollars [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 849 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 758 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The basis of the I main contract is 72 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 107.10 US dollars/ton (previous day), up 0.90 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.09, unchanged. The estimated import cost is 869 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,592.50 million tons (weekly), up 224.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,928.10 million tons (weekly), up 358.90 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 16,111.47 million tons (weekly), up 120.36 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 8,834.20 million tons (weekly), down 150.53 million tons. The iron ore import volume is 11,054.00 million tons (monthly), down 77.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days (weekly), up 4 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 37.87 million tons (weekly), up 0.07 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 60.07%, up 0.05%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 44.97 million tons (weekly), up 5.41 million tons. The BDI index is 2,121.00, down 83.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.30 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.61% (weekly), down 1.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.90% (weekly), down 1.16%. The domestic crude steel output is 6,987 million tons (monthly), down 213 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.51% (daily), up 0.66%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.67% (daily), up 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.87% (daily), down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.32% (daily), up 0.50% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 8th to December 14th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,172.0 million tons, a decrease of 23.6 million tons compared with the previous period, showing a slight decline. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter of this year [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The iron ore port inventory in China, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2]