Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-18 08:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's HC2605 contract rebounded with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the Central Financial Office responded to economic hot - spot issues, and expanding domestic demand is the top - priority task for next year. Consumption should be boosted from both supply and demand sides, and consumption and investment should be coordinated. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 74.57%. Terminal demand shrank, and the apparent demand fell below 3 million tons. Overall, the terminal demand for plates declined, but with the rebound of furnace materials and positive macro - expectations, the futures price was supported. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,277 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,189,556 lots, down 10,392 lots. - HC contract top 20 net position: 11,975 lots, down 23,488 lots. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: 11 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 131,004 tons, down 300 tons. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 152 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - HC main contract basis: 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 796 yuan/wet ton, up 11 yuan. - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 154.2786 million tons, up 1.3152 million tons. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 499,600 tons, up 55,100 tons. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3522 million tons, up 99,700 tons. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 2.9191 million tons, down 168,000 tons. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 74.57%, down 4.29 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 834,200 tons, down 6,100 tons. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 3.073 million tons, down 57,600 tons. - Domestic crude steel output: 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. - Steel net export volume: 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles. - Air - conditioner production: 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units. - Household refrigerator production: 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units. - Household washing machine production: 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2]. Industry News - On December 18, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 2.9191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 168,000 tons; factory inventory was 834,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons; social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons; total inventory was 3.9072 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,700 tons; apparent demand was 2.9828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 136,900 tons. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 14th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a 24% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in December and a 2% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 22.247 million vehicles, a 5% year - on - year increase [2].