GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-12-18 09:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, emphasizing potential investment opportunities in the U.S. energy sector driven by AI and market dynamics [5][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights a dual weakness in supply and demand for coal in November 2025, with a year-on-year decline in raw coal production of 0.5% and a projected annual increase in thermal coal production to approximately 3.88 billion tons, albeit with a narrowing growth rate of 1.4% [1][13]. - Coal imports in November 2025 decreased by 19.9% year-on-year, totaling 44.05 million tons, with an expected annual import level of around 38 million tons, reflecting a 6.4% decline [2][19]. - The report notes a 4.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in November, contrasting with a 2.7% increase in overall industrial power generation [3][22]. - The U.S. coal market is anticipated to experience a historic reversal due to low inventory levels, explosive demand growth, and a rigid supply decline, with coal demand driven primarily by electricity generation [41]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the raw coal production was 430 million tons, showing a 0.5% year-on-year decline, while the daily average production was 14.23 million tons [1][13][12]. - For the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative raw coal production reached 4.4 billion tons, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [1][13]. Imports - Coal imports in November 2025 were 44.05 million tons, down 19.9% from the previous year, with a total of 431.68 million tons imported from January to November, marking a 12.0% decline [2][19][20]. Demand - The report indicates a 4.2% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation in November, with total industrial power generation increasing by 2.7% [3][22]. - The crude steel production in November 2025 was 6.987 million tons, down 10.88% year-on-year [3][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities in the energy sector driven by AI, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [40][8]. - It also highlights the potential for significant growth in U.S. coal demand due to the increasing electricity needs of data centers, predicting a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2024 to 2030 [41].