瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. With no planned plant shutdowns next week and 2 - 4 shut - down plants possibly resuming production, considering short - term faults, production is expected to increase slightly [2] - Agriculture is in a short - term rigid demand off - season, with recent reserve demand for phased replenishment, and there is still reserve demand expectation in the Northeast. Environmental warnings in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places led to a slight decline in compound fertilizer production, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to decline steadily or slightly [2] - Main urea factories in major production and sales areas had a slight inventory build - up this week. However, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia showed obvious inventory reduction due to reserve demand from the Northwest and Northeast. The short - term receipt of orders by urea factories improved, and there may be further inventory reduction. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was 1708 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea was - 51 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the trading volume of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was 162,527 lots, up 97,688 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 13,481; the exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 11,177, down 25 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged, while the price in Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was - 8 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 347.5 and 387.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory was 12.3 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 81.85%, up 0.02 percentage points; the daily urea output was 197,900 tons, unchanged. Urea exports were 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 6.00033 billion tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 40.62%, up 0.09 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 61.86%, up 0.2 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 137 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 13 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 billion tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 32,200 tons, up 100 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.45 million tons or 4.42%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast and Northwest China [2] - As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 million tons or 12.20%. The current export land - to - port collection is in progress smoothly, and some ports have received goods successively [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]