A股市场投资策略周报：市场震荡下沿获确认，跨年行情有望展开-20251218

Market Review - In the recent five trading days (December 12 to December 18), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.79% [5] - The trading volume decreased, with a total of 9.06 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, down by 491.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [9][22] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to November, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a marginal decline of 0.9 percentage points [26] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, reflecting a slowdown in investment sentiment [26] - Real estate investment dropped by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [26] Policy Focus - The central government's economic work meeting emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for 2025, with a focus on service consumption in areas such as cultural tourism, elderly care, and childcare [32] - The government plans to optimize fiscal spending by increasing investment in people's livelihoods and enhancing monetary policy flexibility to support price recovery [32] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with a potential rebound as the market approaches the year-end and spring rally periods [33] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. TMT and robotics sectors due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic computing power substitution [34] 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors driven by high global energy storage demand [34] 3. Social services and resource sectors as policy adjustments focus on structural changes and "anti-involution" measures [34] Industry Performance - Among the major sectors, non-bank financials, transportation, and retail sectors showed the highest gains, while the real estate, power equipment, and comprehensive sectors experienced the largest declines [22]