11月财政数据点评：广义财政支出增长边际回升

Revenue Insights - In November, the growth rate of general public budget revenue fell to 0% from 3.2% in October, with tax revenue growth declining by 5.4 percentage points to 3.2%[3] - The cumulative year-to-date growth rates for VAT and corporate income tax are 3.9% and 1.7%, respectively, outperforming last year's rates of -3.8% and -0.5%[3] - Non-tax revenue continued its negative growth trend, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 32.8% in October to 10.8% in November[3] Expenditure Insights - The year-on-year decline in general fiscal expenditure narrowed from 19.1% in October to 1.7% in November, while the adjusted expenditure growth rate increased from 15% to 33% month-on-month[2] - General public budget expenditure's year-on-year decline improved from -9.3% in October to -4.2% in November, with 83.7% of the annual budget utilized by the end of November, lower than the five-year average of 85.4%[7] - Government fund expenditure turned positive at 2.8% in November, recovering from a -38.2% decline in October, primarily due to increased local government bond issuance[9] Market Implications - The marginal recovery in fiscal expenditure suggests resilience in fiscal policy, which is crucial for stabilizing growth and market expectations[4] - The ongoing fiscal policy adjustments are expected to support domestic demand and investment, particularly through special bonds and budgetary investments[5] - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with potential risks from insufficient fiscal stimulus and weaker domestic demand[9]