钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡走高-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar is running strongly with a daily increase of 1.40%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the situation of weak supply and demand. The price is still prone to pressure in the off - season, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil is rising in a fluctuating manner with a daily increase of 1.05%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated limitedly. The price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore is rising continuously with a daily increase of 1.63%, with increasing volume and positions. Currently, the market sentiment has warmed up and the positive factors remain. The ore price is running strongly at a high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The China Index Academy predicts that the total demand for urban housing in China in the next 5 years will be about 4.98 billion square meters. The annual sales area of newly - built commercial residential buildings is expected to be 700 million to 800 million square meters on average. In 2025, the new - house sales scale has dropped to the central level, and the current housing demand is dominated by "improvement" [7]. - According to AVC data, in January 2026, the domestic sales production scheduling of air - conditioners increased by 32% year - on - year. The growth is mainly due to the rhythm shift caused by the Spring Festival date difference, not a real rebound in terminal demand. The industry is still under the triple pressure of "high inventory, low price, and weak demand" [8]. - In November 2025, China exported 6 million tons of steel sheets, the same as the previous year; from January to November, the cumulative export was 66.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In November, China exported 1.71 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 29.1%; from January to November, the cumulative export was 17.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, as well as the prices of PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase or Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,125 | 1.40 | 3,134 | 3,081 | 1,215,549 | 621,938 | 1,575,943 | - 28,786 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,277 | 1.05 | 3,294 | 3,241 | 586,127 | 299,244 | 1,189,556 | - 10,392 | | Iron Ore | - | 777.5 | 1.63 | 781.5 | 767.0 | 322,377 | 92,590 | 518,155 | 29,159 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [14][19][34] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons, and the demand decreased by 138,900 tons. The price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply and demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output decreased by 56,000 tons. The demand is weak, but the continuous increase in the output of cold - rolled products provides some support. Under the game of long and short factors, the price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand pattern has little change. The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply remains high. The price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [37].