碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides trading strategies for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon. It also mentions potential influencing factors and trading opportunities for each commodity [1][7][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the previous trading day's closing price [1]. - Core Logic: The weekly production and inventory data for lithium carbonate were released, showing a continued de - stocking pattern, but the de - stocking amplitude significantly narrowed. Since December, the inventory has decreased by 2000 - 3000 tons per week, but only 1044 tons this week, far lower than expected. The demand side still has some resilience, with domestic power and energy storage demand both increasing month - on - month in November. It is expected that domestic energy storage installations in 2026 may increase by over 60% year - on - year. The resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine needs to be closely watched, as its resumption may drive the futures price down [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures changed little today, with some reduction at the end of the session. It is still dominated by long positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 97,720 yuan/ton [3]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should be mainly based on buying on dips. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [3]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 59,300 yuan/ton, up 3.73% from the previous trading day's closing price [7]. - Core Logic: The market has a need for adjustment after continuous new highs since listing, driven by the establishment of a polysilicon platform company. However, from a policy perspective, the elimination of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry chain is still emphasized. The polysilicon output has decreased year - on - year for the first time since 2013, strengthening the expectation of price increase, and it is still considered strong [7]. - Technical Analysis: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures decreased significantly today, and it is still dominated by long positions. There was an opportunity to intervene at 13:35 today with the "three - line resonance method" combined with a significant decline in trading volume. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 59,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Polysilicon is still considered strong. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures strengthened today. The 2605 contract closed at 8,645 yuan/ton, up 2.07% from the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - Core Logic: Affected by the macro - sentiment, domestic commodities generally rose today, with significant increases in precious metals and coking coal. Fundamentally, the current situation of weak supply and demand in the industrial silicon industry continues, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, with the inventory - building pattern continuing. Some manufacturers have a strong price - holding mentality under continuous cost inversion, but the overall effect is average in the face of weak demand [10]. - Technical Analysis: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures has been continuously decreasing, and it has turned to be dominated by long positions. The downward driving force has weakened. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,230 yuan/ton [11][14]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is considered a rebound. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14].