——解构美国系列第十五篇：2026年特朗普将如何启动住房改革？

Group 1: Housing Reform Overview - Trump announced a radical housing reform plan to address the worsening housing affordability issue, which has become the second most important concern for voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections[2] - The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has increased from 28 in 1991 to 38 in 2024, indicating a significant affordability crisis[3] - Housing costs have risen faster than inflation and income growth from 2020 to 2024, with rent constituting over 30% of household income for many renters[3] Group 2: Proposed Measures - Key measures include extending mortgage terms from 30 to 50 years, which could reduce monthly payments from $1,530 to $1,294 for a $300,000 home at a 5% interest rate[9] - The government is considering transferable mortgages, allowing buyers to take over existing loans with lower rates, as over half of current homeowners have rates below 4%[9] - Trump plans to declare a national housing emergency to release federal land for new housing construction, potentially allowing for the construction of 3 million new single-family homes[12] Group 3: Economic Impact and Challenges - Tariffs on key building materials have increased construction costs, with steel and aluminum facing 50% tariffs, leading to a projected 4.1% decline in overall construction output over the next three years[4] - The housing market remains weak despite recent interest rate cuts, as mortgage rates are still high due to the risk premium associated with long-term U.S. Treasury yields[5] - The proposed reforms face legislative and judicial hurdles, including the need to amend existing laws to extend mortgage terms and the potential for legal challenges to the emergency declaration[12]