地缘驱动仍是短期原油最大影响因素，跟踪俄乌与委内瑞拉地缘进展

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors are the biggest short - term influence on crude oil, with the focus on the geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela [1][2]. - After the US announced a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, the trading logic of asphalt has shifted from cost - driven to supply - contraction - expected, and the view on the asphalt variety has turned bullish [2]. - In the short term, pay attention to whether the "anti - involution" expectation similar to that in July will drive an intraday upward movement. For intraday unilateral long - position varieties in the energy and chemical sector, priority should be given to PX, synthetic rubber, PVC, and asphalt [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: With the US - Russia - Ukraine talks and the advancement of the cease - fire expectation, oil prices weakened. However, the announcement of sanctions on Venezuela led to a sharp rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical factors are the greatest uncertainty for oil price increases under the background of oversupply. Pay attention to the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia and the actual action against Venezuela [2][3][4]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. The price increased on reduced positions today, and the short - term upper pressure is around 432. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: Previously, asphalt traded based on the crude oil cost logic. The US blockade on Venezuelan oil exports will directly affect domestic asphalt supply, and the trading logic has shifted to supply contraction, with a short - term bullish view [7]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline has ended. Today's price is expected to correct on reduced positions. The strategy is to look for low - buying opportunities after the correction ends on the hourly level [7]. (3) Styrene - Logic: Port inventory has continued to decline, but the year - on - year pressure is still relatively large. With a medium - term bearish view, the short - term rebound is driven by the news of the NDRC's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [10]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term oscillation, and today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - level structure has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6325 - 6690. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There are no major short - term contradictions in the rubber market. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict has limited impact on rubber supply. The supply - demand side lacks major contradictions, and the market should be treated with an oscillatory view [15]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term oscillation. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core logic of synthetic rubber is guided by its raw material, butadiene. The inventory of butadiene has decreased significantly, and its supply - demand situation has improved in the short term. The short - term strengthening of butadiene may drive synthetic rubber to have an hourly - level upward trend [20]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price corrected on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 10760. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 10750 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: There are no new production capacity plans for PX in the next six months, and there are multiple device maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year. The medium - term supply pressure is not large. The short - term demand is expected to weaken, but the overall supply - demand is still balanced. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the cost - end crude oil and the possible short - term upward movement driven by the NDRC's policy [23]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level standard support is around 6700. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 6700 [23]. (7) PTA - Logic: PTA is under pressure due to seasonal decline in polyester demand and short - term inventory accumulation. However, the high profit of upstream PX means that the supply of PTA is not expected to decline significantly, and it mainly follows the cost of PX in the short term [27]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level support is around 4655. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 4655 [27]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [28]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline may have ended. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and 15 - minute long positions can be held, with the stop - loss reference at around 6230 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory has flowed to the inland, showing continuous inventory decline, but the downstream MTO maintenance has led to a weak expectation. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the methanol market may rebound in the short term [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline and a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 2120. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and first look for low - buying opportunities after the correction around 2150 on the 15 - minute cycle [31]. (10) PVC - Logic: The supply - demand situation of PVC is characterized by high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, but its current valuation is low. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [35]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price continued to rise, and the short - term lower support is around 4680. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 4630 [35]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants have expanded, and the maintenance plans have increased, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, putting pressure on the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [39]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 3815 (05 contract). The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [41]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 6550. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues, and the inventory decline rate has slowed down recently. The short - term inventory pressure has improved, but the medium - term fundamentals have not reversed. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term, and the remaining short positions established in August can be closed for profit [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 1155. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of caustic soda remains, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season. There is no sign of a reversal in the supply - demand situation, but there is no more space for short selling in the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [47]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions and broke through the upper short - term pressure of 2180, with the short - term lower support at around 2135. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [47].