天富期货豆粕、生猪下挫

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Soybean meal and live pigs have declined, and the prices of some varieties are expected to continue their downward trends or remain volatile at low levels, while cotton shows an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean sector is weak. Soybean meal prices have fallen to new lows due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and high inventory, and the downward trend may continue. Live pig prices have dropped. With high inventory, there is a risk of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. Although demand has increased, the supply still exceeds demand, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal continues to decline, affected by the fall of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, and high - inventory pressure. From January to November this year, China's imported soybean volume reached 103.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to look for resistance levels to place light short positions [2]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil continues to decline, pressured by the expectation of improved supply. Australian rapeseed is about to enter the crushing process after arrival, and there are rumors that COFCO is inquiring about distant - month Canadian rapeseed. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs reverses and declines, returning to the low - level range. High inventory, high selling willingness of farmers, and the risk of concentrated supply at the end of the year, along with substitute products diverting some consumption, lead to the decline. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, affected by the seasonal supply pressure of new sugar. Overseas, the production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase. Domestically, the southern sugarcane crushing is in full swing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [9]. 3.2.5 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton fluctuates upward and remains at a high level, supported by demand. From January to November this year, cotton imports decreased by 64% year - on - year. The sales rate has increased significantly, and downstream consumption is strong. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to place long positions on dips [12]. 3.2.6 Eggs - The main 2602 contract of eggs continues to decline, pressured by sufficient supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [13][15].