中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive next year, with a moderately increased intensity. The deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 4% in 2026, and the net supply of government bonds is projected to reach 15.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 820 billion yuan compared to 2025. The front-loading degree of fiscal policy implementation may moderate compared to this year [2][11][42]. - For the bond market, the fiscal policy is likely to provide a measured boost rather than strong stimulus, so a significant market adjustment driven by fiscal expansion is unlikely. However, attention should be paid to potential volatility caused by market speculation about further policy escalation. The pressure from government bond supply is likely to be manageable, and the impact may mainly manifest in the term structure, maintaining a steepening yield curve [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Proactive Fiscal Policy Stone - The central government's stance on macro policy is relatively proactive. The "Recommendations for the 15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes strengthening counter - and cross - cyclical adjustments and implementing more proactive macro policies, as well as leveraging the role of proactive fiscal policy to improve fiscal sustainability [12][43]. Moderate Expansion of Fiscal Policy 2.1 The Economy is generally better than the same period last year - Domestic demand continues its moderate recovery. The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of this year was better than the same period last year (5.2% vs. 4.8%), and the inflation readings are overall better than last year. Consumer confidence has been warming up from low levels. The necessity for a significant marginal increase in fiscal policy intensity in 2026 is likely not high [13][43]. - Tariff risks have marginally diminished. The US side will cancel the 10 - percent "fentanyl tariffs" and suspend the 24 - percent reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional year. The trade situation may have eased compared to the same period last year [14][44]. 2.2 Estimated Treasury Bond Net Financing: 7.08 tn Yuan, + 420 bn Yuan - The targeted deficit - to - GDP ratio is expected to be 4%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.88 trillion yuan. The main entity for increasing leverage is likely to be the central government, with a targeted deficit of 5.08 trillion yuan, while local governments' target deficit is expected to remain flat at 80 billion yuan [14][47]. - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is expected to total 1.6 trillion yuan, and the scale of special treasury bonds for capital injection into central financial institutions is projected to be 40 billion yuan. The total issuance scale of special treasury bonds in 2026 is estimated to reach 2 trillion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds in 2026 is projected to be 7.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 42 billion yuan YoY [15][47][48]. 2.3 Estimated Local Government Bond Net Financing: at 8.1 tn Yuan, + 400 bn Yuan - The scale of local government bonds is projected to reach 5.6 trillion yuan in 2026. The targeted local government deficit is expected to remain unchanged at 80 billion yuan, and the scale of special - purpose bonds is anticipated to increase to 4.8 trillion yuan. An additional 50 billion yuan from the unused bond quota may be allocated next year. The net financing of local government bonds is projected to reach approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan compared to the current year [29][64]. - Overall, the net financing scale of government bonds is projected to reach 15.2 trillion yuan in 2026, an increase of approximately 82 billion yuan compared to the current year [30][64]. Optimized Expenditure Structure: Investing in People - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, fiscal policy will continue to focus on people's livelihood, optimizing the expenditure structure and increasing the proportion of spending on livelihood - related projects [38][71]. Less Front - loaded Implementation of Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy support in 2026 is expected to remain front - loaded, but the degree of front - loading may be reduced. The utilization of 50 billion yuan in new policy - oriented financial tools and idle fiscal deposits may bolster the economic fundamentals at the end of this year and early next year. The U.S. mid - term elections in the second half of 2026 could reignite tariff risks, necessitating reserved policy space for response measures [39][72].