银河期货油脂日报-20251218

Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Daily Report on Oils and Fats - Report Date: December 18, 2025 - Report Type: Agricultural Product Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Short - term, oils and fats lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations, and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider buying at low prices after the decline stabilizes [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: For soybeans, the 2605 closing price was 7802, down 20. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8282, 8352, and 8202 respectively, with basis and their changes varying by region. For palm oil, the 2605 closing price was 8368, up 26. Spot prices and basis also differed by region. For rapeseed oil, the 2605 closing price was 8945, down 5, and similar variations were seen in spot prices and basis [2]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 5 - 9 monthly spread for soybeans was 44, down 24; for palm oil, it was 88, down 14; and for rapeseed oil, it was - 3, down 16 [2]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 05 contract Y - P spread was - 566, down 46; the OI - Y spread was 1143, up 15; the OI - P spread was 577, down 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.84, up 0.002 [2]. - Import Profits: For 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 1 - month ship - period, the CNF price was 1025, and the margin profit was - 224. For crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 1 - month ship - period, the FOB price was 1068, and the margin profit was - 1631 [2]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 50th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 95.3 tons (down from 113.7 tons last week and 116.3 tons last year); palm oil inventory was 65.3 tons (down from 68.4 tons last week and up from 53.8 tons last year); rapeseed oil inventory was 33.6 tons (down from 35.3 tons last week and 45.6 tons last year) [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: According to foreign media, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports in October were 2.8 million tons, about 3% lower than the same period last year. The production of crude palm oil in October was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than 2.59 million tons in the previous month [4]. - Domestic Market: - Palm Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of December 12, 2025, the commercial inventory in key regions was 652,700 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week, a decline of 4.53%. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotation was stable, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 200. The basis was stable. It is recommended to consider high - selling and low - buying [4]. - Soybean Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 203,750 tons, with an operating rate of 56.05%, a decrease from the previous week. As of December 12, 2025, the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.1374 million tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons from last week, a decline of 2.20%. It is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has arrived. It is expected to maintain a bottom - volatile trend [4][6]. - Rapeseed Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. Last week, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of December 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 336,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory was continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1000. It is recommended to consider high - selling and low - buying [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Single - Side: Short - term, oils and fats lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations, and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider buying at low prices after the decline stabilizes [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils [13][14][17][21].