银河期货航运日报-20251218

Report Overview - The report is a shipping daily from the Commodity Research Institute, dated December 18, 2025, focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][2][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The EC market experienced a corrective oscillation on December 18th. The market continues to speculate on the freight rate trend in January. The short - term market will remain volatile at a high level, and there are still differences in the market's expectations for the January freight rate. The key factors for future expected differences are the price adjustment rhythm and the time of the peak in January [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Performance - On December 18, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,668.6 points, down 1.84% from the previous day. The latest delivery settlement price of the EC2512 contract on December 12 was 1,510.56 points, up 0.1% month - on - month, and it was lower than market expectations, which drove the EC2512 contract to correct downward [5] 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - Spot Freight Rates: The spot cargo - booking situation has improved recently. MSK released a quote for European base ports in the first week of the new year. Different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for December and January. For example, CMA will levy a PSS of $250/TEU from December 29 [6] - Fundamentals: The shipping volume from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity of Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports in December is 283,000 TEU. The weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 296,500 TEU and 280,700 TEU respectively. The January capacity increased by about 3% compared with the previous week's schedule, and the February capacity decreased by 3.7% [6] - Geopolitical Factors: The second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has begun but is still tortuous. The statements of shipping companies and the resumption of shipping after the Spring Festival need to be observed [6] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Partially take profits and hold part of the long positions in the EC2602 contract. Pay attention to the implementation of shipping companies' price increases and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume [7] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [8] 3.2 Industry News - In 2025, the number of container ship orders reached a new record of 633 ships, totaling 5.08 million TEUs, with Chinese shipyards accounting for 72% of the orders. There are concerns about future over - capacity in the container market [9] - Russian President Putin's speech indicates that the US government's efforts to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine have not changed the Kremlin's military goals [9] - If Putin rejects the peace agreement, the US is prepared to impose new sanctions on Russia [9] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures, such as the SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US - West Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, and container freight rates for different routes, which are sourced from institutions like Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Clarksons, and Wind [10][13][17]