Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The plastic supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on stream this year and the phasing out of the peak season for agricultural films, the L-PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 18, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE line were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, currently at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week-on-week. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory dropping again. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. There are new plastic production capacities coming on stream. The demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the L-PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,475 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,545 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,476 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.54%. The position increased by 21,649 lots to 561,776 lots [2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,350 - 6,570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,000 - 8,680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,770 - 7,940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 18, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE line were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, currently at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week-on-week. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory dropping again. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 670,000 tons week-on-week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat at $725/ton week-on-week, and the price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained flat at $745/ton week-on-week [4].
塑料日报：震荡运行-20251218
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-18 12:11