沥青日报：低开后震荡运行-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the operating rate falling and the planned production in December decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream demand is weakening due to factors like weather and funds, and the overall demand is general. Considering the impact of the situation in Venezuela on heavy crude oil exports and the market's cautious attitude, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, lower than the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt planned production is 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month and a 13.8% decrease year - on - year. This week, Hebei Xinhai switched production, reducing low - price supply [1]. - Demand: Most downstream operating rates declined last week, with the road asphalt operating rate down 2 percentage points to 27% due to funds and weather. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 9.69% to 253,400 tons. With the arrival of cold weather in the north, road construction is ending, and the demand will further weaken, while the project increment in the south is limited [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - Crude Oil: Iraq's oil fields resumed production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the US imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about heavy crude oil exports and a narrowing discount for Venezuelan diluted asphalt. Crude oil prices are fluctuating weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 0.68% to 2,952 yuan/ton, with a trading range between 2,935 and 2,996 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 10,773 to 224,692 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 42 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply - related Indicators: The asphalt operating rate decreased, and the investment in highway construction, road transportation fixed assets, and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) all showed negative year - on - year growth [5]. - Demand - related Indicators: As of the week of December 12, most downstream operating rates declined, and the road asphalt operating rate dropped to 27%. The social financing stock increased 8.5% year - on - year from January to November, with the growth rate remaining the same as that from January to October [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 12, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5].